Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + Platformer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Platformer Sports game?

Sports + Platformer

Of 106 developers who shipped a Platformer Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $54k, ×87 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 93 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 93 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Platformer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 106
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.9k → $7.2k → $1.4k → $898 → $449 → $299 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Platformer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 106
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,237)
Top 5% $54k (exactly $54,491)
Developers, 2 yr 106
Released games 390
Announced 93
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Platformer
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Platformer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Parkour
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 11,103 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $600, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $54k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 74 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SpeedRunners 2016 · $10M UFO 50 2024 · $5.3M Jusant 2023 · $3.1M Trials® Rising 2019 · $1.7M Nidhogg 2014 · $1.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SpeedRunners older $14.99 22,842 94% 685k $10M (exactly $10,272,047) DoubleDutch Games
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
Jusant older $24.99 4,123 93% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,091,013) DON'T NOD
Trials® Rising older $19.99 2,860 62% 86k $1.7M (exactly $1,715,142) RedLynx
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Ben and Ed older $9.99 4,592 82% 138k $1.4M (exactly $1,376,222) Sluggerfly
Trials Fusion™ older $19.99 2,285 66% 69k $1.4M (exactly $1,370,314) RedLynx, in collaboration with Ubisoft… (RedLynx, in collaboration with Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Kiev)
Trials Evolution: Gold Edition older $19.99 2,253 74% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,351,124) Redlynx Ltd, Ubisoft Shanghaï
STRIDE older $19.99 1,975 79% 59k $1.2M (exactly $1,184,408) Joy Way
Ricochet older $4.99 4,549 82% 136k $681k (exactly $680,985) Valve
Paddle Paddle Paddle $4.99 1,584 86% 48k $237k (exactly $237,125) Zoroarts
3dSen PC $14.99 524 91% 16k $236k (exactly $235,643) Geod Studio
SpeedRunners 2: King of Speed $9.99 447 55% 13k $134k (exactly $133,966) Fair Play Labs
Rocket Boots Mania $14.99 229 99% 6.9k $103k (exactly $102,981) Luma Play
Boat Together $4.99 364 76% 11k $54k (exactly $54,491) Beaked Games
4Wheel Challenge $3.99 409 57% 12k $49k (exactly $48,957) LJ3D STUDIOS
Death by Scrolling $7.99 177 77% 5.3k $42k (exactly $42,427) Terrible Toybox NZ
Vilde $15.99 87 74% 2.6k $42k (exactly $41,734) Chaotic Minds
Galumb $7.99 148 28% 4.4k $35k (exactly $35,476) OB

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.