Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Pirates

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Pirate Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Pirates

Only 11 developers shipped a Pirate Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Boomerang Jack, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $360, ×0.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper, while revenue is down 45% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Pirates
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $899 → $13k → $1.8k → $359 → $150 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Pirates: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $359 (exactly $359)
Top 25% $2.1k (exactly $2,063)
Top 5% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 36
Announced 18
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Pirates
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter
Price point
$4.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 83 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $360, 1 in 4 over $2.0k, 1 in 20 over $6.2k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Miss Neko: Pirates older $3.99 1,395 83% 42k $167k (exactly $166,982) Orangeee
Sea of Survivors · EA older $6.99 415 81% 12k $87k (exactly $87,026) Nah Yeah Games
Rum & Gun older $4.99 390 92% 12k $58k (exactly $58,383) Borington
Silent Sector older $14.99 108 82% 3.2k $49k (exactly $48,568) Rake in Grass
Slot Shots Pinball Ultimate Edition older $19.99 22 81% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Pinblend Studios
Battle of Frigates older $4.99 58 63% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,683) Dmitriy Uvarov, Vyacheslav Shilikhin
Boomerang Jack $14.99 14 100% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Recall Interactive
Rum N' Gold Royale $4.99 34 97% 1.0k $5.1k (exactly $5,090) PrimalDev Games
Sea King older $4.99 18 83% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Interactive Stone
Captain Puff MacFly $2.99 23 95% 690 $2.1k (exactly $2,063) MVCAO Studios
Dragons Reef $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Radoslaw Kutowinski
Goblin Lands $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hot Waffle Games
Deep Sea Heroes $5.99 2 100% 60 $359 (exactly $359) Soul Coffee Game Studio's
Moby Click $3.99 3 33% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Drew VanWagner
Star Corsairs: Fractured Frontier · EA $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Tagir Nabiullin
Cannoneer · EA $2.99 2 100% 60 $179 (exactly $179) Logical Studios
Sail: Evolved Tides $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Aellora Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.