Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Dating Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Dating Sim?

Physics + Dating Sim

Of 28 developers who shipped a Physics Dating Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 20 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×9.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $900. Revenue is up 475% on the market; 20 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 475% on the market, 20 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Dating Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $10k → $23k → $3.9k → $12k → $23k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Dating Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $891 (exactly $891)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,933)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,384)
Top 5% $566k (exactly $565,911)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 79
Announced 20
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 475% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Dating Sim
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Dating Sim; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Simulation, Action
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 4,020 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 9 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 20 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  4. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  5. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  7. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  8. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  9. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  10. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  11. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced
  12. + BasketballLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Blood Trail 2019 · EA · $5.4M Baby Steps 2025 · $1.4M VR HOT 2021 · EA · $1.3M Anthro Heat 2025 · $566k Mirage 2020 · EA · $251k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Blood Trail · EA older $24.99 7,181 80% 215k $5.4M (exactly $5,383,596) Electrovore
Baby Steps $19.99 2,355 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,412,294) Gabe Cuzzillo, Maxi Boch, Bennett Foddy
VR HOT · EA older $44.99 998 66% 30k $1.3M (exactly $1,347,001) VR HOT
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Mirage · EA older $29.99 279 63% 8.4k $251k (exactly $251,016) MorganaVR
Table Manners: Physics-Based Dating Game older $17.99 369 57% 11k $199k (exactly $199,149) Echo Chamber Games
Zup! Zero older $1.99 2,572 93% 77k $154k (exactly $153,548) Quiet River
Hand Simulator: Rendezvous older $2.99 1,654 87% 50k $148k (exactly $148,364) Alice Pie
Desktop Kanojo older $2.99 1,502 85% 45k $135k (exactly $134,729) Neko Game
Horny Housewives older $12.99 232 59% 7.0k $90k (exactly $90,410) Entropy Digital Entertainment
My Sexy Fairies $4.99 486 81% 15k $73k (exactly $72,754) Evil Boobs Cult
ComeCloser $39.99 60 68% 1.8k $72k (exactly $71,982) CCT
Libertine: King of Hearts $19.99 96 85% 2.9k $58k (exactly $57,571) Hasnotalent Media
Academy Love Saga: Tennis Angels $8.99 163 92% 4.9k $44k (exactly $43,961) Tora Creatives
Virtual AI - KURONYAM $14.99 52 71% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Shiba Neko
VR Waifu - Ciel $9.99 77 66% 2.3k $23k (exactly $23,077) Shiba Neko
XStoryPlayer $17.99 38 86% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) X-Moon Productions
Flatinside Simulator · EA $9.99 64 64% 1.9k $19k (exactly $19,181) SncI Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.