Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Billiards

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Billiards game?

Physics + Billiards

Of 36 developers who shipped a Physics Billiards game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 32 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $89. Revenue is up 1810% on the market; 32 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 1810% on the market, 32 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Billiards
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $6.6k → $4.3k → $269 → $120 → $1.7k → $538 (still earning) → $1.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Billiards: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $89 (exactly $89)
Median $538 (exactly $538)
Top 25% $3.2k (exactly $3,235)
Top 5% $133k (exactly $132,662)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 86
Announced 32
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1810% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Billiards
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Billiards; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 1,196 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $89, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.2k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $89. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 32 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BasketballLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cue Club 2: Pool & Snooker older $18.99 858 90% 26k $489k (exactly $488,803) Bulldog Interactive
Sports Bar VR older $19.99 784 83% 24k $470k (exactly $470,165) Cherry Pop Games, Perilous Orbit
Pool Nation older $6.99 2,208 89% 66k $463k (exactly $463,018) Cherry Pop Games
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Pure Pool Pro $24.99 206 66% 6.2k $154k (exactly $154,438) Rockwater
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Drop Pockets · EA $14.99 243 83% 7.3k $109k (exactly $109,277) Children of Madness
Ultrapool $11.99 265 88% 8.0k $95k (exactly $95,320) Icedrop Games
POOOOL older $4.99 264 91% 7.9k $40k (exactly $39,521) Noah King
All-In-One Summer Sports VR · EA older $19.99 45 84% 1.4k $27k (exactly $26,986) Appnori Inc.
Ringer $9.99 27 81% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Ideas Per Second
Dorts : A Darts Roguelike $8.99 23 100% 690 $6.2k (exactly $6,203) MovingPixels
Wizard Pool $2.99 66 84% 2.0k $5.9k (exactly $5,920) Grouch, SuitNtie, Negative Karma
Glass Cannon $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) LisiSoft
Crazy Robot Ball $5.99 18 100% 540 $3.2k (exactly $3,235) Blue Band Studio
Billgard $3.99 24 95% 720 $2.9k (exactly $2,873) Triflgard

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.