Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Roguelike Deckbuilder?

Physics + Roguelike Deckbuilder

Of 31 developers who shipped a Physics Roguelike Deckbuilder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced.

Verdict: strong odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×13 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 7 in 10 cleared $1.7k. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 30 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×1.3 per shipper.

Deciding numbers: median 12.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 85% on the market, 30 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Roguelike Deckbuilder
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 31
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $31k → $28k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Roguelike Deckbuilder: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 31
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,092)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,463)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768)
Developers, 2 yr 31
Released games 35
Announced 30
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Roguelike Deckbuilder
effort 3 / 10 · high · deckbuilding rules plus procedural runs

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Roguelike Deckbuilder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Deckbuilding, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 11,564 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  2. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  4. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  5. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  7. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  8. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  9. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  10. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  11. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced
  12. + BasketballLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

ROUNDS 2021 · $6.4M Dungeon Clawler 2026 · $1.7M RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike 2026 · $1.5M Omelet You Cook 2026 · $685k Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron 2026 · $219k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ROUNDS older $5.99 35,738 95% 1.1M $6.4M (exactly $6,422,119) Landfall
Dungeon Clawler $14.99 3,716 88% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,671,085) Stray Fawn Studio
RACCOIN: Coin Pusher Roguelike $11.99 4,239 82% 127k $1.5M (exactly $1,524,768) Doraccoon
Omelet You Cook $14.99 1,523 97% 46k $685k (exactly $684,893) Dan Schumacher, Hjalte Tagmose
Kinny and the Cosmic Cauldron $12.99 563 85% 17k $219k (exactly $219,401) Kinnymoms
Dogpile $9.99 708 95% 21k $212k (exactly $212,188) Studio Folly, Toot Games, Foot
Flick Shot Rogues $14.99 295 87% 8.9k $133k (exactly $132,662) Butter By The Fish
Cult of PiN $14.99 184 77% 5.5k $83k (exactly $82,745) KennyMakesGames
ploink $12.99 91 96% 2.7k $35k (exactly $35,463) Pyrocreep
Cupiclaw $9.99 115 87% 3.5k $34k (exactly $34,466) Typin
Steve's Warehouse: Physics. Roguelike. Chaos. $7.99 130 87% 3.9k $31k (exactly $31,161) Definitely Named Steve

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.