Do I ship it?

GamesPhysicsPhysics + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Idler?

Physics + Idler

Of 142 developers who shipped a Physics Idler in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 170% on the market; 167 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 170% on the market, 167 announced, ×1.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 142
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $713 → $1.0k → $449 → $1.2k → $597 → $1.6k → $718 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 142
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.2k (exactly $4,192)
Top 5% $91k (exactly $91,222)
Developers, 2 yr 142
Released games 259
Announced 167
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 170% on the market, supply 185% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Idler; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Management
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 18,311 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.1k, 1 in 20 over $91k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 48 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 106 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  9. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  10. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  11. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced
  12. + BasketballLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
Sir, We Have an Orc Problem $9.99 4,123 86% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,663) Mumpitz Games
Placid Plastic Duck Simulator older $1.99 17,846 97% 535k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,406) turbolento games
Beer Factory older $18.99 1,410 40% 42k $803k (exactly $803,277) MyceliumGames
Coin Pusher Casino older $12.50 950 84% 29k $356k (exactly $356,250) TreeNutsGames
Tingus Goose $6.99 1,224 89% 37k $257k (exactly $256,673) SweatyChair
Behind Glass: Aquarium Simulator $14.99 390 95% 12k $175k (exactly $175,383) BitBros Inc
Coin Push RPG $9.99 584 76% 18k $175k (exactly $175,025) RAmen
Road Maintenance Simulator older $24.99 159 57% 4.8k $119k (exactly $119,202) Caipirinha Games
Smash Hit Museum $6.99 507 85% 15k $106k (exactly $106,318) InIt Games
Sip Fisher $4.99 637 92% 19k $95k (exactly $95,359) Syphon Software
拖拖拉拉小菲镇 $1.99 1,528 98% 46k $91k (exactly $91,222) LuzhangGames
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
Pegfinity $6.99 347 76% 10k $73k (exactly $72,766) Fragment Ventures AS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.