Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Mini Golf

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Mini Golf game?

Physics + Mini Golf

Of 40 developers who shipped a Physics Mini Golf game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 44 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 155% on the market; 44 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 155% on the market, 44 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Mini Golf
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $90 → $539 → $3.0k → $4.5k → $4.3k → $719 → $2.7k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Mini Golf: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,055)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,487)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 98
Announced 44
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 155% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Mini Golf
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Mini Golf; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Golf, Sports
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Funny, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 9,800 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $3.0k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 44 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  6. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  7. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  8. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  9. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  10. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  11. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced
  12. + BasketballLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Golf With Your Friends 2020 · $23M Super Battle Golf 2026 · $3.6M WHAT THE GOLF? 2020 · $2.6M Walkabout Mini Golf VR 2021 · $2.3M 4D Golf 2024 · $465k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Golf With Your Friends older $14.99 50,748 88% 1.5M $23M (exactly $22,821,376) Blacklight Interactive, Team17
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
WHAT THE GOLF? older $19.99 4,324 93% 130k $2.6M (exactly $2,593,103) Triband
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
4D Golf older $19.99 775 98% 23k $465k (exactly $464,767) CodeParade
GolfTopia older $19.99 477 95% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) MinMax Games Ltd.
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Golf Gang older $9.99 782 84% 23k $234k (exactly $234,365) Lazy Monday Games
Turbo Golf Racing older $9.99 635 85% 19k $190k (exactly $190,310) Hugecalf Studios
Mini Golf Arena · EA older $8.99 385 51% 12k $104k (exactly $103,834) Evoluta Studio
Puttler $7.99 244 95% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,487) Bean Juice Studios
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
Golf Gambit · EA $9.99 28 85% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) KB Entertainment
Putt Down $6.99 26 65% 780 $5.5k (exactly $5,452) Icehelm
PULLBACK RACERS $3.99 39 94% 1.2k $4.7k (exactly $4,668) SkyBrave, blazitt, Gevizz
Sling-A-Thing $5.50 26 100% 780 $4.3k (exactly $4,290) Navel
Tilt It! Golf $4.99 24 87% 720 $3.6k (exactly $3,593) Kautki Cave
Super Serious Golf $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) Karnage Studios
Golftacular! $5.99 17 94% 510 $3.1k (exactly $3,055) Both Good

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.