Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Collectathon game?

Physics + Collectathon

Of 179 developers who shipped a Physics Collectathon game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 230 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 230 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 230 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 179
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $748 → $1.4k → $299 → $750 → $1.5k → $1.3k → $449 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 179
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,315)
Top 5% $264k (exactly $264,468)
Developers, 2 yr 179
Released games 365
Announced 230
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics, Collectathon; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 15,305 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $720, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 81 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 230 games are announced against 115 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  8. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  9. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  10. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  11. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced
  12. + BasketballLong shot19 devs · median $537 · 25 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Supraland 2019 · $7.4M Webbed 2021 · $4.1M SimplePlanes 2015 · $3.8M Bang-On Balls: Chronicles 2023 · $3.2M Leaf it Alone 2025 · $1.1M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supraland older $19.99 12,376 95% 371k $7.4M (exactly $7,421,887) Supra Games
Webbed older $9.99 13,820 97% 415k $4.1M (exactly $4,141,854) Sbug Games
SimplePlanes older $12.99 9,811 93% 294k $3.8M (exactly $3,823,347) Jundroo, LLC
Bang-On Balls: Chronicles older $24.99 4,334 96% 130k $3.2M (exactly $3,249,200) Exit Plan Games
Leaf it Alone $5.99 6,244 95% 187k $1.1M (exactly $1,122,047) Eternity
Placid Plastic Duck Simulator older $1.99 17,846 97% 535k $1.1M (exactly $1,065,406) turbolento games
Snake Pass older $19.99 1,176 87% 35k $705k (exactly $705,247) Sumo Digital
Sledding Game · EA $7.99 2,915 96% 87k $699k (exactly $698,726) The Sledding Corporation
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
My Wife Threw Out My Card Collection (So I Bought a Dump to Find Them All) ⭐ $7.95 1,601 65% 48k $382k (exactly $381,838) Polnoch
Mr. Sleepy Man $19.99 636 98% 19k $381k (exactly $381,409) Devin Santi
Biped 2 $14.99 813 71% 24k $366k (exactly $365,606) META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy… (META Publishing, NEXT Studios, PlayJoy Studios)
Isopod: A Webbed Spin-off $19.99 511 88% 15k $306k (exactly $306,447) Sbug Games
Secret Agent Wizard Boy and the International Crime Syndicate · EA $9.99 931 96% 28k $279k (exactly $279,021) John Szymanski, Evan Szymanski
RUBATO $19.99 441 97% 13k $264k (exactly $264,468) dconn
Smash Hit Museum $6.99 507 85% 15k $106k (exactly $106,318) InIt Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.