Do I ship it?

GamesGolfGolf + Physics

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Physics Golf game?

Golf + Physics

Of 55 developers who shipped a Physics Golf game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 59 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $990, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $270. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 59 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 59 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Golf + Physics
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $1.9k → $3.6k → $2.2k → $359 → $719 → $2.9k (still earning) → $210 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Golf + Physics: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $987 (exactly $987)
Top 25% $3.6k (exactly $3,593)
Top 5% $58k (exactly $58,487)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 155
Announced 59
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Golf
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Golf, Physics; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Simulation, Action
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Stylized
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 10,341 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $990, 1 in 4 over $3.5k, 1 in 20 over $58k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. Nearly all of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 59 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Golf with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SimulationFair32 devs · median $1.4k · 29 announced
  2. + PvPFair29 devs · median $1.4k · 34 announced
  3. + AdventureFair18 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $1.2k · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair40 devs · median $719 · 46 announced
  6. + 3D PlatformerFair16 devs · median $719 · 16 announced
  7. + PuzzleFair16 devs · median $539 · 17 announced
  8. + Local MultiplayerPoor odds14 devs · median $3.1k · 18 announced
  9. + ExplorationPoor odds14 devs · median $1.0k · 17 announced
  10. + Character CustomizationPoor odds14 devs · median $959 · 26 announced
  11. + Mini GolfPoor odds38 devs · median $958 · 60 announced
  12. + SportsPoor odds67 devs · median $899 · 82 announced

All 18 pairs on the Golf page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Golf With Your Friends older $14.99 50,748 88% 1.5M $23M (exactly $22,821,376) Blacklight Interactive, Team17
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
4D Golf older $19.99 775 98% 23k $465k (exactly $464,767) CodeParade
All-In-One Sports VR older $19.99 700 84% 21k $420k (exactly $419,790) Appnori Inc.
Cursed to Golf older $19.99 693 70% 21k $416k (exactly $415,592) Chuhai Labs
Golf Club Nostalgia older $9.99 1,183 83% 35k $355k (exactly $354,545) Demagog Studio
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
GolfTopia older $19.99 477 95% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) MinMax Games Ltd.
Golf Around! older $9.99 823 94% 25k $247k (exactly $246,653) Hough Studio
Puttler $7.99 244 95% 7.3k $58k (exactly $58,487) Bean Juice Studios
Super 10 Pin $11.99 92 98% 2.8k $33k (exactly $33,092) Modus Interactive
Up to Par $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) It's Anecdotal
True Disc Golf $24.99 32 90% 960 $24k (exactly $23,990) Sportsmanlike Games
This Is Golf $4.99 86 94% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,874) SaltySeedGames
An Other Golf Game · EA $6.99 46 86% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) waxycaps
Golf Gambit · EA $9.99 28 85% 840 $8.4k (exactly $8,392) KB Entertainment
The Last Golfer $19.99 12 91% 360 $7.2k (exactly $7,196) Karthik Subramanyam, Andrew Laing

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.