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Should I ship a Physics Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Physics
Of 22 developers who shipped a Physics Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×6.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1328 the market median. Revenue is up 4080% on the market; 61 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) |
| Top 25% | $32k (exactly $32,224) |
| Top 5% | $834k (exactly $834,022) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 105 |
| Announced | 61 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4080% on the market, supply 30% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Physics; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, Gore
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 73% positive over 32,781 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.8 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Half Sword 2026 · EA · $21M 
We Who Are About To Die 2022 · EA · $5.4M 
Hellish Quart 2021 · EA · $4.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
| | We Who Are About To Die | · EA older | $21.99 | 8,134 88% | 244k | $5.4M (exactly $5,366,000) | Jordy Lakiere |
| | Hellish Quart | · EA older | $17.99 | 8,068 88% | 242k | $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) | Kubold |
 | Hellsplit: Arena | older | $24.99 | 3,735 83% | 112k | $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) | Deep Type Games |
 | En Garde! | older | $19.99 | 4,161 90% | 125k | $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) | Fireplace Games |
 | The Bloodline | · EA older | $19.99 | 3,769 82% | 113k | $2.3M (exactly $2,260,269) | Shieldbearer Studios |
 | SpiderHeck | older | $14.99 | 3,922 93% | 118k | $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) | Neverjam |
 | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
 | Arken Age | $39.99 | 669 90% | 20k | $803k (exactly $802,599) | VitruviusVR | |
 | Gladio Mori | $15.99 | 1,147 82% | 34k | $550k (exactly $550,216) | Plebeian Studio | |
 | The Adventures of Sir Kicksalot | $9.99 | 999 98% | 30k | $299k (exactly $299,400) | Stéphane Le Roy | |
 | Ritter & Rotwein | $12.49 | 86 68% | 2.6k | $32k (exactly $32,224) | Hurdy-Gurdy Games | |
 | Kraken City | $4.99 | 189 67% | 5.7k | $28k (exactly $28,293) | nStarcube | |
 | Tales Of Glory 4 : Ragnarok | · EA | $29.99 | 31 83% | 930 | $28k (exactly $27,891) | BlackTale Games |
 | IRONSTRIKE | $19.99 | 41 87% | 1.2k | $25k (exactly $24,588) | E McNeill | |
 | One More Delve | $13.99 | 36 66% | 1.1k | $15k (exactly $15,109) | ATVR |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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