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Should I ship a Perma Death Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Perma Death
Only 18 developers shipped a Perma Death Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dark PGT, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 43 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $60k, ×96 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 43 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $267 (exactly $267) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $5.2k (exactly $5,240) |
| Top 5% | $60k (exactly $60,479) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 41 |
| Announced | 43 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Perma Death
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Perma Death; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Loot, Roguelite, Action
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 725 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 43 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
ELDERBORN 2020 · $1.0M 
Ravenbound 2023 · $693k 
City of Brass 2018 · $455k 
Dark PGT 2025 · $60k 
Trials of Valor 2026 · $57k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ELDERBORN | older | $14.99 | 2,229 87% | 67k | $1.0M (exactly $1,002,381) | Hyperstrange |
| | Ravenbound | older | $29.99 | 770 53% | 23k | $693k (exactly $692,769) | Systemic Reaction™ |
| | City of Brass | older | $19.99 | 758 77% | 23k | $455k (exactly $454,573) | Uppercut Games Pty Ltd |
| | Dark PGT | $4.99 | 404 83% | 12k | $60k (exactly $60,479) | ZERO5GAMES | |
| | Trials of Valor | $18.99 | 100 95% | 3.0k | $57k (exactly $56,970) | Armored Goblin | |
 | Varthos - Heir to the Throne | · EA | $19.99 | 82 68% | 2.5k | $49k (exactly $49,175) | Nightshift Game Development |
 | Choice Chamber | older | $9.99 | 123 89% | 3.7k | $37k (exactly $36,863) | Studio Bean |
 | Eternal Sword Tomb | · EA | $8.99 | 68 77% | 2.0k | $18k (exactly $18,340) | 阿郎 |
 | HAYAI | older | $1.99 | 236 98% | 7.1k | $14k (exactly $14,089) | Chaoclypse |
 | Whisper Trip | older | $4.99 | 90 60% | 2.7k | $13k (exactly $13,473) | Walnut LLC |
 | SideQuest Hunters | $4.99 | 35 71% | 1.1k | $5.2k (exactly $5,240) | Paparajote Games | |
 | Wartheon | $3.99 | 17 94% | 510 | $2.0k (exactly $2,035) | Asilpena Games | |
 | 懒人也江湖 | · EA | $4.99 | 7 57% | 210 | $1.0k (exactly $1,048) | 恒睿游戏 |
 | Dungeonfall | · EA | $3.99 | 6 100% | 180 | $718 (exactly $718) | AGNQ Tech Solutions |
 | DAMex : DArk Matter Exodus | $4.99 | 4 75% | 120 | $599 (exactly $599) | Benoit Locu | |
 | This sect accepts female disciples only | $8.99 | 2 50% | 60 | $539 (exactly $539) | sln |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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