Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Party Game Sports game?

Sports + Party Game

Of 87 developers who shipped a Party Game Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 147 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $34k, ×56 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 147 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 147 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Party Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 87
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.0k → $2.1k → $6.2k → $898 → $479 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Party Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 87
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $540 (exactly $540)
Top 25% $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 5% $35k (exactly $34,865)
Developers, 2 yr 87
Released games 170
Announced 147
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 285% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Party Game
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Party Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Physics, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, Funny, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 11,792 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $3.7k, 1 in 20 over $34k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 147 games are announced against 69 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Super Battle Golf 2026 · $3.6M Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash 2024 · $1.9M Nidhogg 2014 · $1.7M Backyard Baseball 2026 · $1.5M Mount Your Friends 2014 · $768k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Super Battle Golf $12.99 9,325 93% 280k $3.6M (exactly $3,633,952) Brimstone
Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash older $44.99 1,429 75% 43k $1.9M (exactly $1,928,721) Cygames, Inc., Arc System Works
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Backyard Baseball $39.99 1,210 80% 36k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,637) Mega Cat Studios
Mount Your Friends older $4.99 5,130 95% 154k $768k (exactly $767,961) Stegersaurus Software Inc.
Football Simulator · EA older $19.99 896 79% 27k $537k (exactly $537,331) Refactor Games
Golf Gang older $9.99 782 84% 23k $234k (exactly $234,365) Lazy Monday Games
Turbo Golf Racing older $9.99 635 85% 19k $190k (exactly $190,310) Hugecalf Studios
STARWHAL older $11.99 496 92% 15k $178k (exactly $178,411) Breakfall
Motion Soccer PRO $19.99 223 79% 6.7k $134k (exactly $133,733) Ivanovich Games
Beetleball $7.99 354 93% 11k $85k (exactly $84,854) Bugfight Studio
Desktop Fishing $3.49 333 91% 10k $35k (exactly $34,865) Ostend Games
Pimbolas $9.99 89 94% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,673) Nano Knight Studio
Dusty Derby · EA $9.99 66 100% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Geniesoft Inc.
TopplePOP: Bungee Blockbusters · EA $14.99 35 97% 1.1k $16k (exactly $15,740) ArkimA
Drunken FC · EA $6.99 71 80% 2.1k $15k (exactly $14,889) Sloppy Games, Red Herring Labs
This Is Golf $4.99 86 94% 2.6k $13k (exactly $12,874) SaltySeedGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.