Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Ninja

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Ninja Sports game?

Sports + Ninja

Only 10 developers shipped a Ninja Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Last Ninja Collection + Bonus Games, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 7 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $14k, ×23 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 7 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 7 announced, ×1.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Ninja
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Sports + Ninja: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $14k (exactly $14,395)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 42
Announced 7
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 135% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Ninja
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 95% positive over 56 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $14k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 7 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fruit Ninja VR older $14.99 801 80% 24k $360k (exactly $360,210) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Tricking 0 · EA older $19.99 107 89% 3.2k $64k (exactly $64,168) Full-in Studios
Pro Gymnast Simulator older $14.99 105 92% 3.2k $47k (exactly $47,218) Walaber Entertainment LLC
Berzerk Flashback older $9.99 147 93% 4.4k $44k (exactly $44,056) Berzerk Studio
ONI : Road to be the Mightiest Oni older $29.99 38 42% 1.1k $34k (exactly $34,189) KENEI DESIGN, SHUEISHA GAMES
Crazy Kung Fu older $14.99 71 87% 2.1k $32k (exactly $31,929) Field Of Vision
Viro Move older $24.99 23 43% 690 $17k (exactly $17,243) FIT REALITY
The Last Ninja Collection + Bonus Games $29.99 16 100% 480 $14k (exactly $14,395) System 3 Software
Timberman VR older $7.99 38 81% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) GameFormatic S.A.
Dragon Fury older $19.99 15 60% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Esenthel
Prop Sumo $9.99 13 84% 390 $3.9k (exactly $3,896) Barrel Roll Games
SLOWLY FIGHTER $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) Bakumatsu Games
TrainingTiles $9.99 6 100% 180 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) HumanBionics, Jhohan Hernandez
Samurai Ace $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Zerodiv
Backflip Madness 2 $4.99 3 100% 90 $449 (exactly $449) Hubert Śliwka
Shuriken Practice 3 $7.99 1 0% 30 $240 (exactly $240) myBad Studios
PRONG $1.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) bigfreakydaddy
C64 & AMIGA Classix Remakes Sixpack 4 $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) magnussoft
Ninja Vs Bomb $3.00 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Sprem

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.