Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Nature

Of 27 developers who shipped a Nature Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $450, ×0.9 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $7.4k, ×16 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 40 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 40 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $899 → $3.1k → $899 → $359 → $239 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $449 (exactly $449)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,497)
Top 5% $7.5k (exactly $7,485)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 78
Announced 40
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Arcade
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 502 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $450, 1 in 4 over $1.4k, 1 in 20 over $7.4k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
LEVEL UP 80 older $39.99 99 79% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Galactic Geckon
Ash & Adam's Existential Treads $6.99 340 92% 10k $71k (exactly $71,298) Ash & Adam's Games
Dap older $13.99 141 92% 4.2k $59k (exactly $59,178) Melting Parrot
Slot Shots Pinball Ultimate Edition older $19.99 22 81% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Pinblend Studios
Valand older $7.99 54 59% 1.6k $13k (exactly $12,944) LOMS Studio
Once in Flowerlake older $4.99 72 69% 2.2k $11k (exactly $10,778) byMixNez
The Last Drop $4.99 50 64% 1.5k $7.5k (exactly $7,485) Bonobos Games
Frogmageddon $4.99 45 91% 1.4k $6.7k (exactly $6,736) Frog Mage Udon, Sunset Dreamland
FloraMancer : Seeds and Spells older $5.99 33 90% 990 $5.9k (exactly $5,930) Joe Sullivan
Public Land Hunter older $3.99 33 96% 990 $4.0k (exactly $3,950) Toft Games
Crazy Fruit Shooter $6.99 15 93% 450 $3.1k (exactly $3,146) YogurtGames
Super Chaos $5.99 13 92% 390 $2.3k (exactly $2,336) Anodaxia
Drop: Save the Forest $4.99 11 100% 330 $1.6k (exactly $1,647) Riccardo Giol, Games Greenhouse
Squidly's Revenge $4.99 10 100% 300 $1.5k (exactly $1,497) Howling Wolf Games
Peraglees - The Ooloufian Resistance $3.99 12 91% 360 $1.4k (exactly $1,436) DPADFTW
Dragons Reef $19.99 2 50% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Radoslaw Kutowinski
The Hunter's Path $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) JustWallWireHead Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.