Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Sports game?

Sports + Nature

Of 62 developers who shipped a Nature Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 88 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1143 the market median. Revenue is up 55% on the market; 88 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 55% on the market, 88 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $2.4k → $8.6k → $1.1k → $2.7k → $178 → $24k (still earning) → $6.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $39,734)
Top 5% $718k (exactly $717,841)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 207
Announced 88
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 55% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Physics, Immersive Sim
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 15,592 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $39k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 41 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 88 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
theHunter: Call of the Wild™ older $19.99 170,472 89% 5.1M $102M (exactly $102,232,058) Expansive Worlds
Way of the Hunter older $29.99 8,528 81% 256k $7.7M (exactly $7,672,642) Nine Rocks Games
Call of the Wild: The Angler™ older $29.99 6,122 63% 184k $5.5M (exactly $5,507,963) Expansive Worlds
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
Rival Stars Horse Racing: Desktop Edition older $29.99 5,032 91% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) PikPok
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
Shredders older $29.99 3,818 94% 115k $3.4M (exactly $3,435,055) FoamPunch
Jusant older $24.99 4,123 93% 124k $3.1M (exactly $3,091,013) DON'T NOD
Walkabout Mini Golf VR older $24.99 3,094 97% 93k $2.3M (exactly $2,319,572) Mighty Coconut
Lonely Mountains: Downhill older $19.99 2,741 89% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,643,778) Megagon Industries
Ultimate Fishing® Simulator 2 $19.99 2,077 66% 62k $1.2M (exactly $1,245,577) Silent Bear Studio, SHINING GAMES
RIDE 6 $59.99 549 68% 16k $988k (exactly $988,035) Milestone S.r.l.
Driftwood $19.99 1,197 92% 36k $718k (exactly $717,841) Stoked Sloth Interactive
Lonely Mountains: Snow Riders $24.99 749 91% 22k $562k (exactly $561,525) Megagon Industries
SNØ: Ultimate Freeriding $11.99 920 96% 28k $331k (exactly $330,924) Studio Gauntlet
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
BULT: Hunting simulator · EA $9.99 869 87% 26k $260k (exactly $260,439) Nordrise
New Heights: Realistic Climbing and Bouldering $21.99 248 89% 7.4k $164k (exactly $163,606) Wikkl Works
Virtual Hunter $24.99 173 71% 5.2k $130k (exactly $129,698) Korpi Games Oy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.