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Should I ship a Mystery Dungeon Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Mystery Dungeon
Only 16 developers shipped a Mystery Dungeon Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stonemachia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1188 the market median. Revenue is up 2780% on the market; 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $178 (exactly $178) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $4.7k (exactly $4,676) |
| Top 5% | $746k (exactly $746,027) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 16 |
| Released games | 30 |
| Announced | 18 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2780% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Mystery Dungeon
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Mystery Dungeon; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Roguelite
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime, Cute
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,285 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Stonemachia 2026 · $746k 
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle 2026 · $541k 
Strikey Sisters 2017 · $235k 
Nasty Rogue 2019 · $34k 
Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town 2025 · $21k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Stonemachia | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Crossfall Games | |
| | Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle | $18.99 | 950 71% | 29k | $541k (exactly $541,215) | KTMG LLC. | |
| | Strikey Sisters | older | $9.99 | 785 90% | 24k | $235k (exactly $235,264) | DYA Games |
| | Nasty Rogue | older | $10.99 | 102 76% | 3.1k | $34k (exactly $33,629) | Voxelblade Studio |
| | Sword Mistress of the Dungeon Town | $17.99 | 38 65% | 1.1k | $21k (exactly $20,509) | ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Lov… (ラブリープリチー超愛してる, Lovely Pretty Ultra Loving You) | |
 | Witch Rise | older | $6.99 | 27 96% | 810 | $5.7k (exactly $5,662) | lightUP |
 | HexWind | $11.99 | 13 100% | 390 | $4.7k (exactly $4,676) | Charm Games | |
 | Hero Puzzle | older | $1.99 | 74 54% | 2.2k | $4.4k (exactly $4,418) | Hero Games |
 | Adventurer's Gambit: Dungeons of Fortune | $12.99 | 11 81% | 330 | $4.3k (exactly $4,287) | Astana Games | |
 | Infinity Castle Dungeon | older | $3.99 | 32 84% | 960 | $3.8k (exactly $3,830) | Morty's Develop |
 | Drag'N Dungeon | $9.99 | 11 90% | 330 | $3.3k (exactly $3,297) | Demon Girl | |
 | The Dungeon Paradox | $19.99 | 4 100% | 120 | $2.4k (exactly $2,399) | Digital Software | |
 | Duil | $11.99 | 5 80% | 150 | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) | JL studio | |
 | Alternis | · EA | $2.99 | 6 66% | 180 | $538 (exactly $538) | R4v3nB14ck |
 | Arena II | $3.95 | 3 100% | 90 | $356 (exactly $356) | 30 Minute Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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