Do I ship it?

Games › Bullet Heaven › Bullet Heaven + Top-Down Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Top-Down Shooter?

Bullet Heaven + Top-Down Shooter

Of 135 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 207 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.1k, ×6.6 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2582 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 207 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 207 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Bullet Heaven + Top-Down Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 135
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $582k → $162k → $11k → $17k → $5.3k → $47k → $6.3k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Bullet Heaven + Top-Down Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 135
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $3.1k (exactly $3,144)
Top 25% $47k (exactly $46,856)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332)
Developers, 2 yr 135
Released games 182
Announced 207
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 3%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Bullet Heaven, Top-Down Shooter; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Roguelite, Bullet Hell
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 119,974 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $3.1k, 1 in 4 over $46k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 6 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 207 games are announced against 98 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Bullet Heaven with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Online Co-OpStrong odds27 devs · median $9.3k · 38 announced
  2. + Class-BasedFair21 devs · median $2.4k · 38 announced
  3. + CraftingPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  4. + Dungeon CrawlerPoor odds19 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  5. + Action RPGPoor odds77 devs · median $25k · 91 announced
  6. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds21 devs · median $17k · 53 announced
  7. + LootPoor odds54 devs · median $14k · 100 announced
  8. + Tower DefensePoor odds29 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  9. + Twin Stick ShooterPoor odds51 devs · median $11k · 57 announced
  10. + ZombiesPoor odds22 devs · median $11k · 40 announced
  11. + RPGPoor odds120 devs · median $9.3k · 156 announced
  12. + Hack and SlashPoor odds70 devs · median $8.3k · 97 announced

All 48 pairs on the Bullet Heaven page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor 2025 · $18M Brotato 2023 · $17M BALL x PIT 2025 · $11M Yet Another Zombie Survivors 2026 · $6.4M The Spell Brigade 2026 · $5.7M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deep Rock Galactic: Survivor $12.99 46,354 86% 1.4M $18M (exactly $18,064,154) Funday Games
Brotato older $4.99 111,407 95% 3.3M $17M (exactly $16,677,628) Blobfish
BALL x PIT $14.99 24,714 95% 741k $11M (exactly $11,113,886) Kenny Sun and Friends
Yet Another Zombie Survivors $14.99 14,123 91% 424k $6.4M (exactly $6,351,113) Awesome Games Studio
The Spell Brigade $12.99 14,731 80% 442k $5.7M (exactly $5,740,671) Bolt Blaster Games
20 Minutes Till Dawn older $4.99 27,872 90% 836k $4.2M (exactly $4,172,438) flanne
Tower of Babel: Survivors of Chaos $12.99 6,281 68% 188k $2.4M (exactly $2,447,706) NANOO
Nordic Ashes: Survivors of Ragnarok older $9.99 6,180 88% 185k $1.9M (exactly $1,852,146) Noxfall Studios
Pathogenic $9.99 4,145 92% 124k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,256) Aberrant Labs
R.I.P. - Reincarnation Insurance Program $14.99 2,727 76% 82k $1.2M (exactly $1,226,332) WarmCore Studio
Greedland $12.99 2,919 83% 88k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,534) VaMP He
Arms of God · EA $11.50 1,871 88% 56k $645k (exactly $645,495) Dark Jay Studio
TerraTech Legion $9.99 2,109 81% 63k $632k (exactly $632,067) Payload Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.