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Should I ship a Metroidvania Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Metroidvania
Only 18 developers shipped a Metroidvania Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 62 more are announced, ×6.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $4.2k, ×6.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2210 the market median. Revenue is up 75% on the market; 62 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
|---|---|
| Median | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) |
| Top 25% | $28k (exactly $27,697) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 18 |
| Released games | 52 |
| Announced | 62 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 75% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Metroidvania
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay, Metroidvania; all of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Souls-like
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 2,441 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 62 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
ASTLIBRA Revision 2022 · $23M 
Tails of Iron 2021 · $9.8M 
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter 2025 · $1.4M 
Vernal Edge 2023 · $271k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | ASTLIBRA Revision | older | $24.99 | 30,262 95% | 908k | $23M (exactly $22,687,421) | KEIZO |
| | Tails of Iron | older | $24.99 | 13,116 87% | 393k | $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) | Odd Bug Studio |
| | Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter | $24.99 | 1,851 79% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) | Odd Bug Studio | |
| | Vernal Edge | older | $16.99 | 532 74% | 16k | $271k (exactly $271,160) | Hello Penguin Team LLC |
 | Ato | older | $14.99 | 339 97% | 10k | $152k (exactly $152,448) | Tiny Warrior Games |
 | Exorcist Fairy | older | $12.99 | 273 62% | 8.2k | $106k (exactly $106,388) | 青岛三脚猫工作室 |
 | Crimson Capes | $14.99 | 165 90% | 5.0k | $74k (exactly $74,200) | Poor Locke | |
 | Meifumado | older | $14.99 | 159 50% | 4.8k | $72k (exactly $71,502) | Old Bit Studio |
 | TOOK: The Immortal Hero | older | $7.99 | 224 75% | 6.7k | $54k (exactly $53,693) | 妖妖酒 |
 | GIGASWORD | $14.99 | 108 75% | 3.2k | $49k (exactly $48,568) | Studio Hybrid | |
 | Adventure of Samsara | $19.99 | 66 89% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $39,580) | Ilex Games | |
 | Beholgar 2 | $11.99 | 77 80% | 2.3k | $28k (exactly $27,697) | Serkan Bakar | |
 | Janosik 2 | $8.99 | 70 95% | 2.1k | $19k (exactly $18,879) | Onix Games | |
 | Dark Sword: The Light of Ainn | $3.99 | 63 93% | 1.9k | $7.5k (exactly $7,541) | MrDoth | |
 | Journey of the Garden Rose | $11.99 | 18 77% | 540 | $6.5k (exactly $6,475) | Renegade Sector Games | |
 | Golden Knight | $9.99 | 14 85% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Guara Studios | |
 | Barbarian Saga: The Beastmaster | $14.99 | 9 55% | 270 | $4.0k (exactly $4,047) | Dormidin Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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