Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Medieval

Of 40 developers who shipped a Medieval Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×2.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $250k, ×539 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 79 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 79 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.5k → $1.7k → $2.7k → $298 → $958 → $1.6k → $629 (still earning) → $8.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $955 (exactly $955)
Top 25% $7.5k (exactly $7,541)
Top 5% $256k (exactly $256,106)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 104
Announced 79
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Top-Down Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Top-Down, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,908 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $960, 1 in 4 over $7.5k, 1 in 20 over $250k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. Nearly all of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rustler (Grand Theft Horse) older $24.99 1,227 78% 37k $920k (exactly $919,882) Jutsu Games
Asgard's Fall — Viking Survivors $9.99 1,301 79% 39k $390k (exactly $389,910) Soulpotion
Crafty Survivors $11.99 712 83% 21k $256k (exactly $256,106) Flannel Bear Games
DunHero $8.99 530 89% 16k $143k (exactly $142,941) Dev Kacper
LEVEL UP 80 older $39.99 99 79% 3.0k $119k (exactly $118,770) Galactic Geckon
东方栖霞园 ~ Blue devil in the Belvedere. older $9.99 297 92% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,011) 东方祈华梦制作组
Pixel Survivors : Roguelike older $3.99 374 79% 11k $45k (exactly $44,768) Amrita
REMEDIUM · EA older $17.99 68 66% 2.0k $37k (exactly $36,700) Sobaka Studio
REMEDIUM: Sentinels older $4.99 196 66% 5.9k $29k (exactly $29,341) Sobaka Studio
Slash Quest older $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Big Green Pillow, Mother Gaia Studio
Kill A Million Rats $10.99 64 89% 1.9k $21k (exactly $21,101) Nerdook Productions
Ride The Dragon: The Awakening of the Dragon Tamer $10.99 41 56% 1.2k $14k (exactly $13,518) Matariki Studios Co., Ltd
Swamp Keeper $3.99 82 96% 2.5k $9.8k (exactly $9,815) Maetdol Games
Claws of Soria: Escape the Succubus Night $12.99 25 64% 750 $9.7k (exactly $9,742) Byakko MeiMei
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
Dark Reaper Shoots! 2 $5.31 52 69% 1.6k $8.3k (exactly $8,284) SummerTimeStudio
Dark Sword: The Light of Ainn $3.99 63 93% 1.9k $7.5k (exactly $7,541) MrDoth

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.