Do I ship it?

GamesTrading Card GameTrading Card Game + Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Management Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Management

Of 38 developers who shipped a Management Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $710k, ×1134 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 47 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 47 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $2.7k → $1.5k → $2.4k → $719 → $2.7k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Top 5% $712k (exactly $712,358)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 68
Announced 47
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Management
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game, Management; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Collectathon, Immersive Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 52,756 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $710k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Captain Tsubasa: Rise of New Champions older $59.99 5,072 73% 152k $9.1M (exactly $9,128,078) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Out of the Park Baseball 27 $49.99 475 82% 14k $712k (exactly $712,358) Out of the Park Developments
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
Card Shop Simulator Multiplayer $11.99 1,609 82% 48k $579k (exactly $578,757) ShaneGame
Rogue Voltage $15.99 593 92% 18k $284k (exactly $284,462) Horizont Computergrafik
Anime Shop Simulator ✨ $14.99 589 73% 18k $265k (exactly $264,873) One More Time
Gnomes Garden older $14.99 262 87% 7.9k $118k (exactly $117,821) Workroom7, Creobit
TCG Multiplayer Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 198 54% 5.9k $77k (exactly $77,161) Alkame Games
Vertical Kingdom older $19.99 113 75% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) Farlight Games Industry
Sports Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 155 92% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) OverPowered Team
Table Battle Simulator · EA $12.99 85 74% 2.6k $33k (exactly $33,124) Kiki Games
FeeBay Simulator $5.99 167 91% 5.0k $30k (exactly $30,010) Lake Country Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.