Do I ship it?

Games › Trading Card Game › Trading Card Game + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Magic

Of 33 developers who shipped a paid Magic Trading Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 5 in 10 of the games here are free to play and sit outside these figures. 94 more are announced, ×3.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 24 developers shipped in the last year and 94 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 94 announced, ×3.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 33
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.7k → $179 → $30 → $955 → $419 (still earning) → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 33
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $299 (exactly $299)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,662)
Top 5% $78k (exactly $78,055)
Developers, 2 yr 33
Released games 115
Announced 94
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 165% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 45%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Card Battler, Deckbuilding
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 829 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $300, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $78k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 7 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 94 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Arcanium: Rise of Akhan 2022 · $402k Ruff Ghanor 2024 · $261k Erannorth Chronicles 2021 · $256k Witch and Council : The Card 2024 · $82k Fuckstone 2025 · $78k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arcanium: Rise of Akhan older $19.99 670 81% 20k $402k (exactly $401,799) Supercombo, Inc.
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Etherlords II older $4.99 372 85% 11k $56k (exactly $55,688) Nival
Succubless $11.99 146 67% 4.4k $53k (exactly $52,516) Supa Doge
Castle Cardians · EA older $14.99 113 72% 3.4k $51k (exactly $50,816) 风宇冲
Handmancers · EA $14.99 76 88% 2.3k $34k (exactly $34,177) 58BLADES
Fairtravel Battle CCG · EA $14.99 52 98% 1.6k $23k (exactly $23,384) Flaming Torch Games
Meta Card Backpack Legend $7.99 68 97% 2.0k $16k (exactly $16,300) KY Games
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Card of Legend $6.99 31 54% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Anchor Node
Isekai Mage Girl Gacha Pull Simulator: Elemental Card Collection $6.99 27 74% 810 $5.7k (exactly $5,662) Violet Soft
Treasure Atlas · EA $11.99 12 83% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) zzeerr

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.