Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Magic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Magic Sports game?

Sports + Magic

Only 11 developers shipped a Magic Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Amazing Crackpots Club!, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×0.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50; 1 in 20 cleared $18k, ×29 the market median. Revenue is up 100% on the market; 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 100% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Magic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $598 → $59 → $30k → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Magic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $540 (exactly $540)
Top 25% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Top 5% $18k (exactly $18,438)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 53
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 100% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Magic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 89% positive over 130 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $540, 1 in 4 over $5.9k, 1 in 20 over $18k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Harry Potter: Quidditch Champions older $29.99 2,790 73% 84k $2.5M (exactly $2,510,163) Unbroken Studios
RUMBLE · EA older $24.99 3,158 87% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,367,553) Buckethead Entertainment
Wand Wars older $11.99 183 96% 5.5k $66k (exactly $65,825) Moonradish Inc.
Mosaics Galore older $14.99 111 75% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) Creobit
FAIRY TAIL: Beach Volleyball Havoc older $6.99 145 92% 4.4k $30k (exactly $30,406) tiny cactus studio, MASUDATARO, veryOK
The Unicorn Princess older $19.99 50 64% 1.5k $30k (exactly $29,985) Caipirinha Games
RPGolf Legends older $29.99 25 76% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) ArticNet
The Amazing Crackpots Club! $14.99 41 95% 1.2k $18k (exactly $18,438) Astrobard Games, IguanaBee
Little Witch Academia: VR Broom Racing older $29.99 20 90% 600 $18k (exactly $17,994) UNIVRS, Inc.
Bibi & Tina - New adventures with horses older $17.99 19 78% 570 $10k (exactly $10,254) Korion Interactive
WATTGAMES · EA $24.99 13 84% 390 $9.7k (exactly $9,746) TripleScience Software
Wizard Pool $2.99 66 84% 2.0k $5.9k (exactly $5,920) Grouch, SuitNtie, Negative Karma
Disc Dungeon $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fire Titan Games
Surfing Legends $8.99 4 100% 120 $1.1k (exactly $1,079) TALOF Games
Cosmic Star Lounge $17.99 1 100% 30 $540 (exactly $540) Bax Digital GmbH
KOLOSS · EA $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Breakpoint One, Simmation
Stream Olympique $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) YannUE5
Flip Crystal League $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Judox Studio
Quantum Lotto Machine $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Quantum Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.