Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Loot

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Loot Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Loot

Of 30 developers who shipped a Loot Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 54 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.6k, ×5.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $2.6M, ×4237 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 54 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 115% on the market, 54 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Loot
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 30
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $809 → $3.6k → $3.6k → $1.5k → $18k (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Loot: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 30
Bottom 30% $539 (exactly $539)
Median $3.6k (exactly $3,596)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $49,175)
Top 5% $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990)
Developers, 2 yr 30
Released games 69
Announced 54
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Loot
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Loot; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelite, Action Roguelike, Hack and Slash
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 10,866 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $3.6k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $2.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 54 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Shadow Warrior 2 older $29.99 24,120 87% 724k $22M (exactly $21,700,764) Flying Wild Hog
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Achilles: Legends Untold older $24.99 2,149 77% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,105) Dark Point Games
Karnage Chronicles older $24.99 1,190 85% 36k $892k (exactly $892,143) Nordic Trolls
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
Robber Knight · EA older $39.99 284 64% 8.5k $341k (exactly $340,715) Sartorian
Fate Seeker: Journey older $10.00 1,105 77% 33k $332k (exactly $331,500) JSL Entertainment
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Talisman: Digital 5th Edition $29.99 227 70% 6.8k $204k (exactly $204,232) Nomad Games
Darkblade Ascent $10.99 551 80% 17k $182k (exactly $181,665) PST Games
Trials of Valor $18.99 100 95% 3.0k $57k (exactly $56,970) Armored Goblin
Varthos - Heir to the Throne · EA $19.99 82 68% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Nightshift Game Development
Breath of Life $14.99 104 78% 3.1k $47k (exactly $46,769) Satur Entertainment
Re:Blade $3.99 169 71% 5.1k $20k (exactly $20,229) STAGE Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.