Do I ship it?

GamesTop-Down ShooterTop-Down Shooter + Logic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Logic Top-Down Shooter?

Top-Down Shooter + Logic

Only 16 developers shipped a Logic Top-Down Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Glyphica: Typing Survival, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $180 in the last 2 years and $150 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Top-Down Shooter + Logic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $419 → $450 → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Top-Down Shooter + Logic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $180 (exactly $180)
Top 25% $2.2k (exactly $2,156)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $745,654)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 45
Announced 18
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Top-Down Shooter
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Logic
effort 2 / 10 · high · deductive rules and grids

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Top-Down Shooter, Logic; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Arcade, Procedural Generation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Colorful, 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 2,548 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $180, 1 in 4 over $2.1k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Top-Down Shooter with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + VampiresFair16 devs · median $3.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Turn-Based StrategyFair13 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  3. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 15 announced
  4. + IdlerFair24 devs · median $748 · 30 announced
  5. + ArcheryFair9 devs · median $359 · 11 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds12 devs · median $6.5k · 28 announced
  7. + Tactical RPGPoor odds12 devs · median $5.5k · 16 announced
  8. + Action RTSPoor odds14 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + HistoricalPoor odds18 devs · median $3.3k · 24 announced
  10. + ModernPoor odds13 devs · median $3.3k · 19 announced
  11. + CraftingPoor odds45 devs · median $3.1k · 125 announced
  12. + DystopianPoor odds24 devs · median $3.1k · 92 announced

All 150 pairs on the Top-Down Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Glyphica: Typing Survival · EA $9.99 2,488 90% 75k $746k (exactly $745,654) aliasBLACK
DUSK '82: ULTIMATE EDITION older $6.99 383 95% 11k $80k (exactly $80,315) David Szymanski
Nurose · EA older $9.99 90 87% 2.7k $27k (exactly $26,973) Orongto
Underwater battles older $39.99 12 75% 360 $14k (exactly $14,396) Stas Paty9mkin
Metavaxx older $5.99 29 86% 870 $5.2k (exactly $5,211) PUNKCAKE Delicieux
Glass Cannon $4.99 29 89% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) LisiSoft
Bug Butcher older $4.99 29 72% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) Chuvdji
Stopping Move $9.99 10 100% 300 $3.0k (exactly $2,997) Gamesforgames
Go, Go Cowboy older $4.99 17 82% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) PhoenixFire Games
Symphorix · EA $5.99 12 100% 360 $2.2k (exactly $2,156) OnTriggerJoy
Doomsday Tower Defense $15.99 3 33% 90 $1.4k (exactly $1,439) Urban Isotope
Goblin Lands $14.99 1 100% 30 $450 (exactly $450) Hot Waffle Games
Mod Mage Mike $6.99 2 100% 60 $419 (exactly $419) ZilpZilp Games
StormBonk $5.99 1 100% 30 $180 (exactly $180) Edenvind
Dual Combat · EA $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Nugget Software
Raybounder $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) zilard

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.