Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Local Multiplayer

Only 13 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, BLEACH Rebirth of Souls, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×4.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $500; 1 in 20 cleared $8.6M, ×13845 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 34 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $479 → $4.8k → $12k → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $492 (exactly $492)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $93k (exactly $92,954)
Top 5% $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 65
Announced 34
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 125% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Local Multiplayer
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 71% positive over 8,186 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $500, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $8.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $500. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 34 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

SOULCALIBUR VI 2018 · $18M BLEACH Rebirth of Souls 2025 · $8.7M GORN 2019 · $4.5M Hellish Quart 2021 · EA · $4.4M SpiderHeck 2022 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
GORN older $19.99 7,449 94% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,467,165) Free Lives
Hellish Quart · EA older $17.99 8,068 88% 242k $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) Kubold
SpiderHeck older $14.99 3,922 93% 118k $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) Neverjam
Nidhogg older $9.99 5,717 90% 172k $1.7M (exactly $1,713,385) Messhof
Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage $19.99 1,897 71% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) RGG Studio
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio
First Cut: Samurai Duel older $8.99 1,986 88% 60k $536k (exactly $535,624) Night Eyes Interactive
Nidhogg 2 older $14.99 1,027 82% 31k $462k (exactly $461,842) Messhof
Shrine's Legacy $19.99 155 82% 4.7k $93k (exactly $92,954) Positive Concept Games
Ritter & Rotwein $12.49 86 68% 2.6k $32k (exactly $32,224) Hurdy-Gurdy Games
Buccaneers Shipshape $12.99 31 87% 930 $12k (exactly $12,081) Merso Entertainment
OVERCAT $6.99 12 100% 360 $2.5k (exactly $2,516) SPIKY TEETH STUDIOS
KBF: Knight Bar Fight $3.99 13 100% 390 $1.6k (exactly $1,556) KBF Team
Card Maker Simulator $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Níkolas Santos
HONORLESS! $1.49 11 90% 330 $492 (exactly $492) Budino Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.