Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Sports game?

Sports + Local Multiplayer

Of 196 developers who shipped a Local Multiplayer Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 208 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $300. Revenue is up 15% on the market; 208 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 15% on the market, 208 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $3.6k → $1.8k → $4.5k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $2.7k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,647)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,195)
Top 5% $594k (exactly $593,901)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 795
Announced 208
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 15% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Local Multiplayer; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Simulation, Local Co-Op
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 56% positive over 164,288 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $590k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 115 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 208 games are announced against 122 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
TEKKEN 7 older $39.99 68,063 83% 2.0M $82M (exactly $81,655,181) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc.
NBA 2K25 older $69.99 30,969 60% 929k $65M (exactly $65,025,609) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts
Undisputed $49.99 19,190 60% 576k $29M (exactly $28,779,243) Steel City Interactive
Golf With Your Friends older $14.99 50,748 88% 1.5M $23M (exactly $22,821,376) Blacklight Interactive, Team17
SpeedRunners older $14.99 22,842 94% 685k $10M (exactly $10,272,047) DoubleDutch Games
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Sonic & All-Stars Racing Transformed Collection older $19.99 11,912 93% 357k $7.1M (exactly $7,143,626) Sumo Digital
Golf It! older $8.99 24,695 90% 741k $6.7M (exactly $6,660,242) Perfuse Entertainment
EA SPORTS™ College Football 27 $69.99 2,583 40% 77k $5.4M (exactly $5,423,525) Tiburon
UFO 50 $24.99 7,134 94% 214k $5.3M (exactly $5,348,360) Mossmouth
WWE 2K26 $69.99 2,310 56% 69k $4.9M (exactly $4,850,307) Visual Concepts
NBA 2K27 $69.99 1,698 53% 51k $3.6M (exactly $3,565,291) Visual Concepts
EA SPORTS™ Madden NFL 27 $69.99 793 36% 24k $1.7M (exactly $1,665,062) Tiburon
EVERYBODY'S GOLF HOT SHOTS $39.99 1,048 60% 31k $1.3M (exactly $1,257,286) HYDE, Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.