Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Life Sim

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Life Sim Sports game?

Sports + Life Sim

Of 56 developers who shipped a Life Sim Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.0k, ×6.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×185 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 75 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Life Sim
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 56
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $16k → $1.6k → $9.6k → $5.4k → $8.8k → $5.4k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Life Sim: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 56
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.0k (exactly $4,046)
Top 25% $24k (exactly $24,284)
Top 5% $116k (exactly $115,984)
Developers, 2 yr 56
Released games 171
Announced 75
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Life Sim; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 2,102 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.0k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 8 in 10 of the 40 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 30 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ultimate Fishing Simulator® older $19.99 8,256 89% 248k $5.0M (exactly $4,951,123) Ultimate Games S.A., Bit Golem
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
Gym Simulator 24 older $12.99 2,531 84% 76k $986k (exactly $986,331) Red Axe Games
Esports Life Tycoon older $19.99 605 61% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) UPLAY Online
Fishing Adventure older $4.99 1,479 85% 44k $221k (exactly $221,406) MasterCode
Russian Life Simulator older $0.99 7,156 88% 215k $213k (exactly $212,533) GosDev Production
Spikair Volleyball · EA older $19.99 303 93% 9.1k $182k (exactly $181,709) Choc Abyss
Westview Academy - Season 1 $12.99 419 73% 13k $163k (exactly $163,284) TakoYuh
Virtual Hunter $24.99 173 71% 5.2k $130k (exactly $129,698) Korpi Games Oy
Esports History $9.99 387 77% 12k $116k (exactly $115,984) Quantum Gear Studios
Rally Mechanic Simulator $17.99 195 69% 5.9k $105k (exactly $105,241) Play2Chill S.A., Atomic Jelly
Under Par Golf Architect $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Broken Arms Games
我的钓鱼世界 · EA $14.99 203 60% 6.1k $91k (exactly $91,289) 华幸
CFS (Chinese Football Simulator) $9.99 290 67% 8.7k $87k (exactly $86,913) 悟空实验室
Sports Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 155 92% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) OverPowered Team
Tennis Manager 26 $39.99 46 73% 1.4k $55k (exactly $55,186) Rebound
Tennis Manager 25 $19.99 76 68% 2.3k $46k (exactly $45,577) Rebound

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.