Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Sandbox?

Sandbox + LGBTQ+

Of 35 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 52 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $40k, ×64 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $9.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $13M, ×21331 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 63.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 52 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $122k → $442k → $11k → $35k → $79k → $90k → $7.7k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $9.4k (exactly $9,352)
Median $40k (exactly $39,916)
Top 25% $303k (exactly $302,981)
Top 5% $13M (exactly $13,395,985)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 112
Announced 52
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Character Customization, Simulation, Dating Sim
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 123,738 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $9.4k, median $40k, 1 in 4 over $300k, 1 in 20 over $13M.

3 in 10 developers made under $9.4k. 5 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 52 games are announced against 18 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
My Time at Sandrock older $39.99 24,110 88% 723k $29M (exactly $28,924,767) Pathea Games
Paralives · EA $39.99 20,123 89% 604k $24M (exactly $24,141,563) Alex Massé and team
Coral Island older $29.99 21,828 89% 655k $20M (exactly $19,638,652) Stairway Games
Fields of Mistria $13.99 31,918 96% 958k $13M (exactly $13,395,985) NPC Studio
House Party older $24.99 13,968 85% 419k $10M (exactly $10,471,810) Eek! Games, LLC
WEBFISHING $4.99 57,353 97% 1.7M $8.6M (exactly $8,585,744) lamedeveloper
WWE 2K25 $59.99 4,108 73% 123k $7.4M (exactly $7,393,168) Visual Concepts
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
Dead Rising Deluxe Remaster $49.99 2,971 80% 89k $4.5M (exactly $4,455,609) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Storyteller older $14.99 8,169 88% 245k $3.7M (exactly $3,673,599) Daniel Benmergui
Tales of Seikyu $24.99 2,179 83% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,633,596) ACE Entertainment
Drag'n Wash $14.99 2,880 96% 86k $1.3M (exactly $1,295,136) Gator Dragon Games
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Dustland Delivery $7.99 1,264 88% 38k $303k (exactly $302,981) Neutron Star Studio
Lust's Cupid $19.99 313 81% 9.4k $188k (exactly $187,706) Dinotonte

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.