Do I ship it?

Games › Physics › Physics + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Physics game?

Physics + LGBTQ+

Only 19 developers shipped an LGBTQ+ Physics game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Train Sim World® 6, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $24k, ×38 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $3.7M, ×5934 the market median. Revenue is up 135% on the market; 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 37.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 135% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Physics + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $43k → $24k → $200k → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Physics + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $3.9k (exactly $3,892)
Median $24k (exactly $23,676)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $48,286)
Top 5% $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 47
Announced 25
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 135% on the market, supply 20% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Physics
effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Physics; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Adventure
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 8,845 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $3.9k, median $24k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $3.7M.

3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Physics with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds31 devs · median $8.1k · 30 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair28 devs · median $5.9k · 20 announced
  3. + PinballFair62 devs · median $2.5k · 80 announced
  4. + World War IIFair11 devs · median $1.4k · 16 announced
  5. + Mini GolfFair40 devs · median $1.2k · 44 announced
  6. + GolfFair55 devs · median $987 · 59 announced
  7. + CollectathonFair179 devs · median $718 · 230 announced
  8. + IdlerFair142 devs · median $718 · 167 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair162 devs · median $600 · 157 announced
  10. + CatsFair76 devs · median $599 · 101 announced
  11. + Mystery DungeonFair22 devs · median $539 · 20 announced
  12. + BilliardsFair36 devs · median $538 · 32 announced

All 251 pairs on the Physics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Bugsnax 2022 · $6.5M Train Sim World® 6 2025 · $3.7M Train Sim World® 5 2024 · $3.6M Eternal Strands 2025 · $1.5M VR HOT 2021 · EA · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Bugsnax older $24.99 8,673 97% 260k $6.5M (exactly $6,502,148) Young Horses
Train Sim World® 6 $49.99 2,485 78% 75k $3.7M (exactly $3,726,754) Dovetail Games
Train Sim World® 5 $39.99 3,028 80% 91k $3.6M (exactly $3,632,692) Dovetail Games
Eternal Strands $29.99 1,661 87% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,494,402) Yellow Brick Games
VR HOT · EA older $44.99 998 66% 30k $1.3M (exactly $1,347,001) VR HOT
Mount Your Friends older $4.99 5,130 95% 154k $768k (exactly $767,961) Stegersaurus Software Inc.
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Bad Rats: the Rats' Revenge older $1.99 7,062 77% 212k $422k (exactly $421,601) Invent4 Entertainment
Mirage · EA older $29.99 279 63% 8.4k $251k (exactly $251,016) MorganaVR
Ambrosia Sky $24.99 267 89% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive
Elvenfoundry $34.99 46 67% 1.4k $48k (exactly $48,286) SunbathGames
Kemopop! $4.99 291 96% 8.7k $44k (exactly $43,563) KEMOHAUS
CODE Bunny $9.99 143 93% 4.3k $43k (exactly $42,857) Team Seventh Star
Jumping Jazz Cats $8.99 148 74% 4.4k $40k (exactly $39,916) Le Catnip Collective
Wirm $6.99 147 93% 4.4k $31k (exactly $30,826) Sbug Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.