Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Inventory Management

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Inventory Management Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Inventory Management

Only 13 developers shipped an Inventory Management Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Backpack Jianghu, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.0k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $720; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 27 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Inventory Management
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.1k → $0 → $1.5k → $2.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Inventory Management: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $719 (exactly $719)
Median $2.0k (exactly $1,977)
Top 25% $5.2k (exactly $5,240)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 31
Announced 27
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Inventory Management
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Inventory Management
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 845 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $720, median $2.0k, 1 in 4 over $5.2k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $720. All of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Achilles: Legends Untold older $24.99 2,149 77% 64k $1.6M (exactly $1,611,105) Dark Point Games
Karnage Chronicles older $24.99 1,190 85% 36k $892k (exactly $892,143) Nordic Trolls
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Varthos - Heir to the Throne · EA $19.99 82 68% 2.5k $49k (exactly $49,175) Nightshift Game Development
Warden: Melody of the Undergrowth older $19.99 46 78% 1.4k $28k (exactly $27,586) Cardboard Keep
Tale of Dark Lands $7.99 36 80% 1.1k $8.6k (exactly $8,629) Satur Entertainment
SideQuest Hunters $4.99 35 71% 1.1k $5.2k (exactly $5,240) Paparajote Games
Doko Roko older $9.99 14 42% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Eric Mack
PixelQuest - Herb's Adventure $9.99 12 75% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) AntaresVids
Silver Cats older $17.99 6 100% 180 $3.2k (exactly $3,238) Silver Cats
XiuXian Idle Cultivation $0.99 91 21% 2.7k $2.7k (exactly $2,703) 浪屿峻造
The Last Nordic Tribe $5.99 11 90% 330 $2.0k (exactly $1,977) Never Say Never
Ruins of Endoth · EA $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) KLG Games Ltd
虚衝 - Kyosho $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) むつむつプロジェクト(Mutsu'pro)
Card Maker Simulator $7.99 3 100% 90 $719 (exactly $719) Níkolas Santos

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.