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Should I ship an Incremental Trading Card Game?
Trading Card Game + Incremental
Only 19 developers shipped an Incremental Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $720, ×1.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×831 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 29 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $269 (exactly $269) |
|---|---|
| Median | $719 (exactly $719) |
| Top 25% | $4.7k (exactly $4,672) |
| Top 5% | $522k (exactly $521,943) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 19 |
| Released games | 97 |
| Announced | 29 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $5.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Trading Card Game
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Incremental
- effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Trading Card Game, Incremental; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Card Game, Economy
- Price point
- $5.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.
The top 10 games average 80% positive over 2,883 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Trading Card Game with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Immersive SimStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + Procedural GenerationPoor odds
- + TradingPoor odds
- + Life SimPoor odds
- + CollectathonPoor odds
- + HistoricalPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Auto BattlerPoor odds
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds
- + Online Co-OpPoor odds
Comparable games
KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000 2026 · $522k 
Gnomes Garden 2015 · $118k 
Doodle Kingdom 2016 · $35k 
FeeBay Simulator 2026 · $30k 
CyberTD 2023 · $30k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | KOTAMON: My Sis Found A Super-Rare Card In Her Cereal Box, So I Became A Garbage Man To Find The Entire Collection And Earn $1,000,000 | $6.99 | 2,489 81% | 75k | $522k (exactly $521,943) | KotaMota Games | |
| | Gnomes Garden | older | $14.99 | 262 87% | 7.9k | $118k (exactly $117,821) | Workroom7, Creobit |
| | Doodle Kingdom | older | $8.99 | 129 45% | 3.9k | $35k (exactly $34,791) | JoyBits Ltd. |
| | FeeBay Simulator | $5.99 | 167 91% | 5.0k | $30k (exactly $30,010) | Lake Country Games | |
| | CyberTD | older | $19.99 | 50 66% | 1.5k | $30k (exactly $29,985) | Clockwork Origins |
 | Sexy Jigsaw | 性感拼图 | 섹시 퍼즐 | セクシーなパズル | older | $3.99 | 215 83% | 6.5k | $26k (exactly $25,736) | ZOV GAME STUDIO |
 | FISHTOPIA | $8.99 | 70 87% | 2.1k | $19k (exactly $18,879) | BountyGames | |
 | Dig for TCG Cards With Your Friends | $6.99 | 77 44% | 2.3k | $16k (exactly $16,147) | 3 Rare Devs | |
 | SEARCH ALL - ADULT | older | $9.99 | 49 67% | 1.5k | $15k (exactly $14,685) | Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich |
 | Royal Merchant | older | $4.99 | 75 62% | 2.3k | $11k (exactly $11,228) | Badim |
 | Crack it Up! | $5.99 | 26 88% | 780 | $4.7k (exactly $4,672) | Somnambulist Games | |
 | PERSEVERANCE: Chapter 1 | $4.99 | 25 44% | 750 | $3.7k (exactly $3,742) | XPECTED | |
 | Idle Colors | $7.99 | 10 30% | 300 | $2.4k (exactly $2,397) | Like Idle Games | |
 | Idle Pixels | $7.99 | 8 0% | 240 | $1.9k (exactly $1,918) | Pixel Labs | |
 | Idle Income | $5.99 | 8 37% | 240 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | Trinket Games | |
 | Idle Rect | $7.99 | 3 0% | 90 | $719 (exactly $719) | Lazy Idle Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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