Do I ship it?

Games › Sports › Sports + Idler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Idler Sports game?

Sports + Idler

Of 34 developers who shipped an Idler Sports game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is down 15% on the market; 29 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 15% on the market, 29 announced, ×1.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Idler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $89 → $419 → $8.3k → $35k → $269 → $475 (still earning) → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Idler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,307)
Top 25% $3.1k (exactly $3,050)
Top 5% $110k (exactly $110,345)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 80
Announced 29
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 15% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Idler
effort 1 / 10 · high · number growth curves and a UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Idler; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Incremental, Management
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 9,273 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $3.0k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 22 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cast n Chill 2025 · $3.8M NeverSynth 2022 · $279k LurkBait Twitch Fishing 2024 · $115k Real VR Fishing 2024 · $110k PropHunter 2021 · EA · $110k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cast n Chill $14.99 8,383 94% 251k $3.8M (exactly $3,769,835) Wombat Brawler
NeverSynth older $12.99 715 75% 21k $279k (exactly $278,636) Whale Rock Games
LurkBait Twitch Fishing older $7.00 548 87% 16k $115k (exactly $115,080) BLAMCAM Interactive
Real VR Fishing $19.99 184 73% 5.5k $110k (exactly $110,345) Devs United Games, Inc
PropHunter · EA older $3.99 917 79% 28k $110k (exactly $109,765) Alone Fox Games
Bhop PRO older $9.99 225 18% 6.8k $67k (exactly $67,432) HorseGames
Electro Bop Boxing League $14.99 84 79% 2.5k $38k (exactly $37,775) Developer Dob
Desktop Fishing $3.49 333 91% 10k $35k (exactly $34,865) Ostend Games
Federation77 older $9.99 96 78% 2.9k $29k (exactly $28,771) MIROWIN
Goal Idle · EA $6.99 101 74% 3.0k $21k (exactly $21,180) Royue Games
Lazy Kickers $2.99 85 90% 2.6k $7.6k (exactly $7,625) Sos Sosowski
Tap Derby: Horse Racing $4.99 36 91% 1.1k $5.4k (exactly $5,389) Frost Warrior Studios
Swish Ball Clicker $7.99 15 53% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Broad Street Indie Games
Gold ’n Goal $2.99 34 55% 1.0k $3.1k (exactly $3,050) Frog Hammer
Padel Tycoon $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Santiago Piedras Gonzalez

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.