Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Hidden Object

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hidden Object Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Hidden Object

Only 13 developers shipped a Hidden Object Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Stonemachia, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 13 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1188 the market median. Revenue is up 5920% on the market; 13 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 5920% on the market, 13 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Hidden Object
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $359 → $597 → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Hidden Object: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $4.9k (exactly $4,852)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $746,027)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 25
Announced 13
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 5920% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hidden Object
effort 2 / 10 · high · static scenes with click targets

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay, Hidden Object
Price point
$6.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 1,450 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $4.8k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 13 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
The Adventures of The Black Hawk older $12.99 77 85% 2.3k $30k (exactly $30,007) Croqueta Asesina Studios
Ladies, Don’t Tempt My Immortality $10.99 57 89% 1.7k $19k (exactly $18,793) 蒸汽满满工作室
Spellbound Beauties $6.99 72 83% 2.2k $15k (exactly $15,098) Lunar Kiss Games
A Game About Breaking Pots $5.99 27 100% 810 $4.9k (exactly $4,852) Glenn Verheij
SEARCH ALL - RUNES older $2.99 42 92% 1.3k $3.8k (exactly $3,767) Laush Dmitriy Sergeevich
Ghost Infinite Labyrinth $7.99 15 60% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) riinwin
Drag'N Dungeon $9.99 11 90% 330 $3.3k (exactly $3,297) Demon Girl
Shonen Adventure : The Dual Blades Hero older $13.99 5 60% 150 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Melvyn Boutel
Super Bear: Hunt for the lost beer older $4.99 13 69% 390 $1.9k (exactly $1,946) Tero Lunkka, Valkeala Software
虚衝 - Kyosho $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) むつむつプロジェクト(Mutsu'pro)
Sexy Katana $9.99 4 100% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Doky
Where's My Bara Deck? Hardcastle $1.99 10 90% 300 $597 (exactly $597) Kopon Games
DarkShine · EA $3.00 5 100% 150 $450 (exactly $450) DScorp

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.