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Should I ship a Hex Grid Sandbox?
Sandbox + Hex Grid
Of 23 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $12k, ×19 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×2327 the market median. Revenue is up 180% on the market; 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $2.6k (exactly $2,637) |
|---|---|
| Median | $12k (exactly $12,171) |
| Top 25% | $55k (exactly $54,728) |
| Top 5% | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 23 |
| Released games | 70 |
| Announced | 40 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 180% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox, Hex Grid; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Management
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 81% positive over 7,503 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $2.7k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
ENDLESS Legend™ 2014 · $13M 
Galactic Civilizations III 2015 · $7.5M 
Opus Magnum 2017 · $3.6M 
Galactic Civilizations IV 2023 · $2.6M 
NEO Scavenger 2014 · $2.0M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | Opus Magnum | older | $19.99 | 5,964 97% | 179k | $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) | Zachtronics |
| | Galactic Civilizations IV | older | $39.99 | 2,207 72% | 66k | $2.6M (exactly $2,647,738) | Stardock Entertainment |
| | NEO Scavenger | older | $14.99 | 4,437 89% | 133k | $2.0M (exactly $1,995,319) | Blue Bottle Games |
 | Plan B: Terraform | $15.99 | 3,526 91% | 106k | $1.7M (exactly $1,691,422) | Gaddy Games | |
 | Ascension | · EA | $19.99 | 2,437 60% | 73k | $1.5M (exactly $1,461,469) | Element Game 微元游戏 |
 | As Far As The Eye | older | $24.99 | 1,640 73% | 49k | $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) | Unexpected |
 | Before We Leave | older | $19.99 | 1,278 78% | 38k | $766k (exactly $766,417) | Balancing Monkey Games |
 | Rising Lords | older | $19.99 | 904 70% | 27k | $542k (exactly $542,129) | Argonwood |
 | Kaizen: A Factory Story | $19.99 | 694 91% | 21k | $416k (exactly $416,192) | Coincidence | |
 | MoteMancer | · EA | $29.99 | 243 91% | 7.3k | $219k (exactly $218,627) | CyanAvatar Studios |
 | Humanica | · EA | $14.99 | 192 93% | 5.8k | $86k (exactly $86,342) | PanfachDev |
 | Folk Emerging | $24.99 | 73 86% | 2.2k | $55k (exactly $54,728) | Curious Dynamics | |
 | Mistward | $11.99 | 74 59% | 2.2k | $27k (exactly $26,618) | Sokpop Collective | |
 | Plentiful | · EA | $9.99 | 79 91% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $23,676) | GabberGames |
 | Qianli: The Vastscape Scroll | $9.99 | 79 86% | 2.4k | $24k (exactly $23,676) | Betobe Studio | |
 | Skyline Urban Story | $6.99 | 106 90% | 3.2k | $22k (exactly $22,228) | PandaUpStudio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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