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Should I ship a Hex Grid Turn-Based game?
Turn-Based + Hex Grid
Of 22 developers who shipped a Hex Grid Turn-Based game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $13k, ×20 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $3.9k; 1 in 20 cleared $290k, ×468 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $3.9k (exactly $3,896) |
|---|---|
| Median | $13k (exactly $12,529) |
| Top 25% | $61k (exactly $60,570) |
| Top 5% | $294k (exactly $293,853) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 22 |
| Released games | 197 |
| Announced | 35 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $11.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Turn-Based
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Hex Grid
- effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Turn-Based, Hex Grid; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Roguelike
- Price point
- $11.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.
The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,439 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $3.9k. 5 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Turn-Based with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerStrong odds
- + DragonsStrong odds
- + Hack and SlashStrong odds
- + SandboxFair
- + HorrorFair
- + CraftingFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + Perma DeathFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + ChessFair
- + Tower DefensePoor odds
- + 4XPoor odds
Comparable games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M 
Sid Meier's Civilization® V 2010 · $115M 
HUMANKIND™ 2021 · $33M 
For The King 2018 · $19M 
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ 2014 · $17M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI | older | $59.99 | 276,113 86% | 8.3M | $497M (exactly $496,920,566) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization® V | older | $29.99 | 128,186 95% | 3.8M | $115M (exactly $115,328,944) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
| | HUMANKIND™ | older | $49.99 | 22,165 68% | 665k | $33M (exactly $33,240,850) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
| | For The King | older | $19.99 | 31,038 87% | 931k | $19M (exactly $18,613,489) | IronOak Games |
| | Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ | older | $39.99 | 14,047 61% | 421k | $17M (exactly $16,852,186) | Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux)) |
 | ENDLESS Legend™ | older | $29.99 | 14,413 83% | 432k | $13M (exactly $12,967,376) | AMPLITUDE Studios |
 | Warhammer 40,000: Gladius - Relics of War | older | $39.99 | 8,148 82% | 244k | $9.8M (exactly $9,775,156) | Proxy Studios |
 | Armello | older | $24.99 | 11,013 82% | 330k | $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) | League of Geeks |
 | Galactic Civilizations III | older | $29.99 | 8,337 77% | 250k | $7.5M (exactly $7,500,799) | Stardock Entertainment |
 | Age of Wonders III | older | $29.99 | 7,020 81% | 211k | $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) | Triumph Studios |
 | The Last Flame | $19.99 | 2,744 85% | 82k | $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) | Hotloop | |
 | Sandwalkers | $19.99 | 490 73% | 15k | $294k (exactly $293,853) | Goblinz Studio | |
 | Feed the Scorchpot | $14.99 | 371 87% | 11k | $167k (exactly $166,839) | Moravian | |
 | Yield! Fall of Rome | $19.99 | 219 69% | 6.6k | $131k (exactly $131,334) | Billionworlds | |
 | Clonizer | $14.99 | 146 82% | 4.4k | $66k (exactly $65,656) | Juicy Plume | |
 | Imperial Ambitions | $19.99 | 101 81% | 3.0k | $61k (exactly $60,570) | aoiti | |
 | Fight Life: Vanguard | $11.99 | 164 69% | 4.9k | $59k (exactly $58,991) | StartImpulse, Two Cakes Studio | |
 | Zero Orders Tactics | $11.99 | 89 91% | 2.7k | $32k (exactly $32,013) | Pauloondra | |
 | Deep Fringe | · EA | $19.99 | 45 88% | 1.4k | $27k (exactly $26,986) | Bosoneon Studio |
 | 1953: NATO vs Warsaw Pact | $5.99 | 70 41% | 2.1k | $13k (exactly $12,579) | Wastelands Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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