Do I ship it?

Games › RPG › RPG + Hex Grid

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hex Grid RPG?

RPG + Hex Grid

Of 39 developers who shipped a Hex Grid RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×2620 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 96 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 96 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RPG + Hex Grid
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $143k → $301k → $31k → $74k → $3.4k → $27k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RPG + Hex Grid: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,169)
Median $10k (exactly $10,072)
Top 25% $74k (exactly $74,200)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 129
Announced 96
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 80% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

RPG
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
RPG, Hex Grid; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Turn-Based Strategy, Strategy, Strategy RPG
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Isometric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 10,902 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $74k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds169 devs · median $54k · 144 announced
  2. + IdlerFair357 devs · median $2.2k · 471 announced
  3. + Boss RushFair20 devs · median $1.8k · 27 announced
  4. + SportsFair113 devs · median $1.5k · 124 announced
  5. + Combat RacingFair22 devs · median $629 · 28 announced
  6. + Split ScreenFair28 devs · median $450 · 31 announced
  7. + Precision PlatformerFair41 devs · median $449 · 43 announced
  8. + SamuraiPoor odds14 devs · median $261k · 14 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds76 devs · median $96k · 165 announced
  10. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $54k · 56 announced
  11. + MinigamesPoor odds19 devs · median $40k · 34 announced
  12. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds15 devs · median $28k · 19 announced

All 262 pairs on the RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

For The King 2018 · $19M ENDLESS Legend™ 2014 · $13M For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Armello 2015 · $8.3M Age of Wonders III 2014 · $6.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
ENDLESS Legend™ older $29.99 14,413 83% 432k $13M (exactly $12,967,376) AMPLITUDE Studios
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Age of Wonders III older $29.99 7,020 81% 211k $6.3M (exactly $6,315,894) Triumph Studios
King's Bounty II older $39.99 4,473 61% 134k $5.4M (exactly $5,366,258) Fulqrum Games
Pit People® older $19.99 7,458 92% 224k $4.5M (exactly $4,472,563) The Behemoth
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Expeditions: Viking older $29.99 3,293 82% 99k $3.0M (exactly $2,962,712) Logic Artists
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
The Last Flame $19.99 2,744 85% 82k $1.6M (exactly $1,645,577) Hotloop
Psychic Kung Fu Master $19.99 1,723 60% 52k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) 金十四工作室
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Those Who Rule $17.99 1,116 89% 33k $602k (exactly $602,305) Eldin Turulja
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Veterum $19.99 204 85% 6.1k $122k (exactly $122,339) Crasleen Games
High Seas, High Profits! $14.99 165 86% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) lexy.zip

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.