Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Card Battler

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Battler Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Card Battler

Only 12 developers shipped a Card Battler Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Rogue Hex, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 29 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.2k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×328 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 29 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 29 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Card Battler
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $8.2k → $4.5k → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Card Battler: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Median $8.2k (exactly $8,247)
Top 25% $66k (exactly $65,656)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,922)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 36
Announced 29
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $12.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Card Battler
effort 3 / 10 · high · card rules plus simple encounter logic

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Card Battler
Price point
$12.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 1,005 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $8.2k, 1 in 4 over $65k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 29 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Alina of the Arena 2022 · $1.6M Tales & Tactics 2024 · $937k Faeria 2017 · $912k Super Bullet Break 2022 · $260k Rogue Hex 2025 · $156k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Alina of the Arena older $14.99 3,577 91% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,577) PINIX
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
Faeria older $19.99 1,520 83% 46k $912k (exactly $911,544) Abrakam Entertainment SA
Super Bullet Break older $19.99 434 81% 13k $260k (exactly $260,270) BeXide Inc.
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Oaken older $19.99 239 79% 7.2k $143k (exactly $143,328) Laki Studios
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Sea Horizon older $14.99 145 75% 4.4k $65k (exactly $65,206) 45 Studio
Souls of White Star · EA older $14.99 142 83% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) Souls of Star Game Lab.
The Dead Await $12.99 108 67% 3.2k $42k (exactly $42,088) Shotx
Flawed Tactics $9.99 59 89% 1.8k $18k (exactly $17,682) Flawed Games
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Hex Blast $4.99 30 100% 900 $4.5k (exactly $4,491) Soy Boy Games
Daemon Sigil $9.99 9 77% 270 $2.7k (exactly $2,697) Ember Light Interactive
Solnox - Grimoire of Seasons $6.66 12 75% 360 $2.4k (exactly $2,398) ByteRockers' Games
Grist · EA $12.99 3 100% 90 $1.2k (exactly $1,169) Chironex Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.