Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Local Multiplayer

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Local Multiplayer Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Local Multiplayer

Only 12 developers shipped a Local Multiplayer Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $240. Revenue is up 20% on the market; 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 20% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Local Multiplayer
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $8.4k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Local Multiplayer: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,492)
Top 25% $11k (exactly $11,394)
Top 5% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 49
Announced 14
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $11.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 20% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Local Multiplayer
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Local Multiplayer; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Tactical
Price point
$11.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.95 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 1990's, Isometric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.95 or above; the middle game at $11.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 270 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $22k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  2. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  4. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  5. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  6. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  8. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  9. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  10. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Terraforming Mars 2018 · $3.1M 军团战棋Legion War 2021 · $222k Final Theory 2018 · $174k Ogre 2017 · $167k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
军团战棋Legion War older $9.99 741 89% 22k $222k (exactly $222,078) Bear & Cat Studio
Final Theory older $14.99 386 79% 12k $174k (exactly $173,584) Monticube
Ogre older $24.99 223 66% 6.7k $167k (exactly $167,183) Auroch Digital
Kingdom, Dungeon, and Hero older $29.99 168 76% 5.0k $151k (exactly $151,150) Kraken Studios
Greed Corp older $9.99 372 88% 11k $111k (exactly $111,488) Vanguard Games
Hive older $9.99 244 83% 7.3k $73k (exactly $73,127) BlueLine Games
Steam: Rails to Riches older $9.99 111 78% 3.3k $33k (exactly $33,267) Acram Digital
Post Human W.A.R older $14.99 65 83% 2.0k $29k (exactly $29,230) Studio Chahut
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book I $39.95 19 100% 570 $23k (exactly $22,772) Wargame Design Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Chaos Gate (Classic) $9.99 74 90% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) Random Games
Final Liberation: Warhammer Epic 40,000 (Classic) $5.99 88 87% 2.6k $16k (exactly $15,814) Holistic Design Inc
Super World War $19.99 19 100% 570 $11k (exactly $11,394) Zero Games Studios
American Revolutionary War $39.95 9 100% 270 $11k (exactly $10,786) Wargame Design Studio
Sword & Siege Age of Longbow: Volume I $39.95 7 100% 210 $8.4k (exactly $8,390) Wargame Design Studio
Arete $9.99 22 95% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) Molotov Cockatiel Games, Vasilios Kalpa… (Molotov Cockatiel Games, Vasilios Kalpakoglou)
Sword & Siege Crusades: Book II $39.95 4 100% 120 $4.8k (exactly $4,794) Wargame Design Studio
Warhammer 40,000: Rites of War (Classic) $5.99 25 96% 750 $4.5k (exactly $4,492) DreamForge
War of the Austrian Succession $39.95 3 100% 90 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Wargame Design Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.