Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Roguelite

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Roguelite Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Roguelite

Of 42 developers who shipped a Roguelite Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 101 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.9k, ×17 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 101 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 101 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Roguelite
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 42
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.1k → $1.3k → $6.6k → $19k → $28k → $6.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $12k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Roguelite: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 42
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Median $7.9k (exactly $7,913)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $24,762)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 42
Released games 109
Announced 101
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Roguelite
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Roguelite; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Roguelike, Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 2,637 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $7.9k, 1 in 4 over $24k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 101 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced
  12. + CraftingPoor odds12 devs · median $7.2k · 23 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

For The King 2018 · $19M For The King II 2023 · $9.5M Crying Suns 2019 · $2.4M Curious Expedition 2 2021 · $2.3M Curious Expedition 2016 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Crying Suns older $24.99 3,149 85% 94k $2.4M (exactly $2,360,805) Alt Shift
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
Alina of the Arena older $14.99 3,577 91% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,577) PINIX
Legends of Kingdom Rush older $14.99 1,524 66% 46k $685k (exactly $685,343) Ironhide Game Studio
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Fabled Lands older $18.99 523 79% 16k $298k (exactly $297,953) Prime Games
Sandwalkers $19.99 490 73% 15k $294k (exactly $293,853) Goblinz Studio
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
EcoGnomix $19.99 216 74% 6.5k $130k (exactly $129,535) Irox Games
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
Zero Orders Tactics $11.99 89 91% 2.7k $32k (exactly $32,013) Pauloondra
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Gunbot Diplomacy $4.99 186 86% 5.6k $28k (exactly $27,844) Sleepy Sentry

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.