Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Tower Defense

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tower Defense Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Tower Defense

Only 16 developers shipped a Tower Defense Hex Grid game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Hive Blight, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 27 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300, ×0.6 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59. 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper, while revenue is up 575% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 575% on the market, 27 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Tower Defense
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $26k → $599 → $299 → $239 → $5.5k (still earning) → $300 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Tower Defense: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $5.5k (exactly $5,456)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $137,515)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 42
Announced 27
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 575% on the market, supply 120% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tower Defense
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Tower Defense; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Strategy, Card Game
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
8 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 509 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $300, 1 in 4 over $5.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 27 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Hexguardian older $11.99 617 78% 19k $222k (exactly $221,935) Split Second Games
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Role of Hex older $9.99 93 69% 2.8k $28k (exactly $27,872) Verde
Castle Constructor older $11.99 72 80% 2.2k $26k (exactly $25,898) Sisyphean Games
Transport Legion $8.99 76 81% 2.3k $20k (exactly $20,497) 喜人一个
They Came From Below older $24.99 17 58% 510 $13k (exactly $12,745) Piece Of Voxel
Hexrogue older $8.99 30 93% 900 $8.1k (exactly $8,091) FRIVER
HexaScape: Cyber Defense $14.99 15 100% 450 $6.7k (exactly $6,746) Clockwork Origins
Defense&Making · EA $13.99 13 76% 390 $5.5k (exactly $5,456) 3DAYS
Hexagonal Tower older $2.99 53 52% 1.6k $4.8k (exactly $4,754) Z.F. Gams
America Against Ants $14.99 9 100% 270 $4.0k (exactly $4,047) Aartform Games, Mark Brendan
Treasure's Mine! $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FatFishGame
Train Trek · EA $14.99 2 100% 60 $899 (exactly $899) Aixceptional
Catnip Wars $9.99 1 100% 30 $300 (exactly $300) Ender Knight
Tiny Kings · EA $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Floating Chicken Games
Last Throne · EA $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) LKHGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.