Do I ship it?

GamesHex GridHex Grid + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tabletop Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Tabletop

Of 40 developers who shipped a Tabletop Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 41 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.2k, ×4.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $160k, ×351 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 41 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 41 announced, ×1.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 40
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.1k → $143k → $1.8k → $29k → $179 → $5.5k → $240 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 40
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $2.2k (exactly $2,158)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,193)
Top 5% $167k (exactly $166,839)
Developers, 2 yr 40
Released games 113
Announced 41
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Tabletop; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Tactical
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 1,591 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $2.2k, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $160k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 18 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 41 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
For The King older $19.99 31,038 87% 931k $19M (exactly $18,613,489) IronOak Games
For The King II older $24.99 12,708 71% 381k $9.5M (exactly $9,527,188) IronOak Games
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Terraforming Mars older $19.99 5,194 71% 156k $3.1M (exactly $3,114,842) Artefacts Studio
Scythe: Digital Edition older $19.99 3,164 89% 95k $1.9M (exactly $1,897,451) The Knights of Unity
Curious Expedition older $14.99 3,951 91% 119k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,765) Maschinen-Mensch
As Far As The Eye older $24.99 1,640 73% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,229,508) Unexpected
The Troop older $39.99 816 83% 24k $979k (exactly $978,955) Giant Flame
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
Hex of Steel older $24.99 863 95% 26k $647k (exactly $646,991) War Frogs Studio
Inkshade $19.99 620 87% 19k $372k (exactly $371,814) Studio Vezelle
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Space Imperia 4X $22.99 70 92% 2.1k $48k (exactly $48,279) Breich Games
Eclipse - 2nd Dawn for the Galaxy $12.99 95 57% 2.9k $37k (exactly $37,022) BrettspielWelt GmbH
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Empire Builder $19.99 42 95% 1.3k $25k (exactly $25,187) Zombie Possum Games Inc
Combat Directive : Napoleonic Wars $19.99 36 88% 1.1k $22k (exactly $21,589) Fatice Games
Transport Legion $8.99 76 81% 2.3k $20k (exactly $20,497) 喜人一个
Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss $19.99 22 63% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Polyarc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.