Do I ship it?

Games › Hex Grid › Hex Grid + Puzzle

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Puzzle Hex Grid game?

Hex Grid + Puzzle

Of 65 developers who shipped a Puzzle Hex Grid game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 72 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $540, ×1.1 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $32k, ×67 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 72 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 72 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Hex Grid + Puzzle
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 65
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $269 → $3.4k → $238 → $479 → $360 → $898 → $599 (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Hex Grid + Puzzle: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 65
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $539 (exactly $539)
Top 25% $4.0k (exactly $4,042)
Top 5% $32k (exactly $32,013)
Developers, 2 yr 65
Released games 201
Announced 72
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 7%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Hex Grid
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Puzzle
effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Hex Grid, Puzzle; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Board Game, Building
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Colorful, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 1,564 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $540, 1 in 4 over $4.0k, 1 in 20 over $32k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 72 games are announced against 33 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Hex Grid with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Local MultiplayerFair12 devs · median $4.5k · 14 announced
  2. + Open WorldPoor odds12 devs · median $24k · 20 announced
  3. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds7 devs · median $19k · 18 announced
  4. + Turn-BasedPoor odds22 devs · median $13k · 35 announced
  5. + SandboxPoor odds23 devs · median $12k · 40 announced
  6. + ExplorationPoor odds35 devs · median $12k · 55 announced
  7. + RPGPoor odds39 devs · median $10k · 96 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGPoor odds26 devs · median $10k · 60 announced
  9. + 4XPoor odds26 devs · median $9.9k · 60 announced
  10. + Card BattlerPoor odds12 devs · median $8.2k · 29 announced
  11. + RoguelitePoor odds42 devs · median $7.9k · 101 announced
  12. + RoguelikePoor odds37 devs · median $7.8k · 102 announced

All 69 pairs on the Hex Grid page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Opus Magnum 2017 · $3.6M Unity of Command II 2019 · $1.8M TerraScape 2024 · $930k Hexcells Infinite 2014 · $618k Hexcells 2014 · $456k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Opus Magnum older $19.99 5,964 97% 179k $3.6M (exactly $3,576,611) Zachtronics
Unity of Command II older $29.99 2,042 79% 61k $1.8M (exactly $1,837,187) 2x2 Games, Croteam
TerraScape older $14.99 2,068 88% 62k $930k (exactly $929,980) Bitfall Studios
Hexcells Infinite older $4.99 4,130 96% 124k $618k (exactly $618,261) Matthew Brown
Hexcells older $2.99 5,087 96% 153k $456k (exactly $456,304) Matthew Brown
Kaizen: A Factory Story $19.99 694 91% 21k $416k (exactly $416,192) Coincidence
Unity of Command: Stalingrad Campaign older $9.99 808 78% 24k $242k (exactly $242,158) 2x2 Games
MoteMancer · EA $29.99 243 91% 7.3k $219k (exactly $218,627) CyanAvatar Studios
Hexcells Plus older $2.99 2,271 95% 68k $204k (exactly $203,709) Matthew Brown
Landnama older $13.99 439 74% 13k $184k (exactly $184,248) Sonderland
CIPHER ZERO $14.99 165 89% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Zapdot
Zero Orders Tactics $11.99 89 91% 2.7k $32k (exactly $32,013) Pauloondra
ColdRidge $9.99 97 73% 2.9k $29k (exactly $29,071) Frog Collective
Qianli: The Vastscape Scroll $9.99 79 86% 2.4k $24k (exactly $23,676) Betobe Studio
ShoreTiles $6.99 90 74% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,873) Voxel Studios
Zen World $9.99 51 80% 1.5k $15k (exactly $15,285) Cartboard Games
Fortune Fragments $15.99 27 96% 810 $13k (exactly $12,952) Runoi Games
Harmonis: the hand-made kingdoms $13.99 29 75% 870 $12k (exactly $12,171) Catvin Catowsky

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.