Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Hack and Slash

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Hack and Slash Sports game?

Sports + Hack and Slash

Only 13 developers shipped a Hack and Slash Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Helskate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 16 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $59; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×359 the market median. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 16 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Hack and Slash
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.9k → $90 → $120 → $479 → $3.8k → $959 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Hack and Slash: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $59 (exactly $59)
Median $959 (exactly $959)
Top 25% $3.8k (exactly $3,838)
Top 5% $226k (exactly $225,660)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 66
Announced 16
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Hack and Slash
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports, Hack and Slash
Price point
$14.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 563 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $59, median $960, 1 in 4 over $3.8k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $59. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 16 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fruit Ninja VR older $14.99 801 80% 24k $360k (exactly $360,210) Halfbrick Studios Pty Ltd
Helskate $24.99 301 65% 9.0k $226k (exactly $225,660) Phantom Coast
BEYBLADE X EVOBATTLE $49.99 112 81% 3.4k $168k (exactly $167,966) 株式会社グルーブボックスジャパン
My Riding Stables: Life with Horses older $14.99 244 88% 7.3k $110k (exactly $109,727) Sproing
Bloodsports.TV older $9.99 255 83% 7.7k $76k (exactly $76,424) Toadman Interactive, Fatshark
DrumBeats VR $14.99 128 65% 3.8k $58k (exactly $57,562) Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Expe… (Marcel Eissens, VRROOM Ultimate VR Experiences BV)
RPGolf Legends older $29.99 25 76% 750 $22k (exactly $22,492) ArticNet
Presentiment of Death older $14.99 45 71% 1.4k $20k (exactly $20,236) XOCUS
DOLPHIN HUSTLE older $24.99 16 75% 480 $12k (exactly $11,995) Gamesforgames
Stop Sign VR Tools · EA older $5.99 59 84% 1.8k $11k (exactly $10,602) Reality Inside Ltd.
Just Move Fall Dungeon Endless Abyss $15.99 8 50% 240 $3.8k (exactly $3,838) daminggede
Fresh Tracks VR $19.99 2 100% 60 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Buffalo Buffalo
Bashing Brutal $7.99 5 60% 150 $1.2k (exactly $1,198) Lema Games
The Long Drive Badland $15.99 2 100% 60 $959 (exactly $959) TinyBig
Project: KNOSSOS $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) Ancient Pixel
BleepWare Incrementals $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) Beep2Bleep
DudeGo $0.99 2 50% 60 $59 (exactly $59) FussyCraft

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.