Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Wargame

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gun Customization Wargame?

Gun Customization + Wargame

Only 17 developers shipped a Gun Customization Wargame in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dagger Directive, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×766 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 30 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Wargame
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $18k → $748 → $5.4k → $599 → $720 (still earning) → $39k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Wargame: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $450 (exactly $450)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,798)
Top 25% $55k (exactly $55,172)
Top 5% $481k (exactly $480,959)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 48
Announced 30
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 140% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Wargame
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization, Wargame; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Tactical, Action
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 2,126 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $55k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 3 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + DystopianPoor odds16 devs · median $51k · 58 announced
  3. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  4. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  5. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  6. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  7. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  8. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  10. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sprocket 2021 · EA · $7.4M NavalArt 2018 · EA · $1.4M Dagger Directive 2026 · $481k Ratten Reich 2025 · $369k EXFIL 2024 · EA · $181k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sprocket · EA older $19.99 12,336 92% 370k $7.4M (exactly $7,397,899) Hamish Dunn
NavalArt · EA older $19.99 2,362 90% 71k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,491) Rigidbody
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Ratten Reich $19.99 616 40% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) METALLADLERSTUDIO
EXFIL · EA $19.99 302 67% 9.1k $181k (exactly $181,109) Tiny Leviathan
Welcome Back, Commander $14.99 230 80% 6.9k $103k (exactly $103,431) S.C. 16 BIT NIGHTS S.R.L.
GW: Legacy older $15.99 128 61% 3.8k $61k (exactly $61,402) Alto Interactive
Territory Control 2 · EA $19.99 92 77% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) TFlippy, Knorrepot
Cossacks: Art of War older $4.99 330 83% 9.9k $49k (exactly $49,401) GSC Game World
BURNED HORIZONS · EA $44.99 29 34% 870 $39k (exactly $39,141) BURNED HORIZONS STUDIO
Beyond Enemy Lines - Vietnam · EA $14.99 42 66% 1.3k $19k (exactly $18,887) Polygon Art
WARRIORS · EA $17.99 6 0% 180 $3.2k (exactly $3,238) BAKROS DYNAMICS
Assault Commander Rearmed $11.99 5 80% 150 $1.8k (exactly $1,798) VTDev Informatikai Kft.
Portable Ops 2 · EA $12.00 2 0% 60 $720 (exactly $720) Outlaw Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.