Do I ship it?

Games › Gun Customization › Gun Customization + Dystopian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dystopian Gun Customization game?

Gun Customization + Dystopian

Only 16 developers shipped a Dystopian Gun Customization game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, The Forever Winter, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 58 more are announced, ×6.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $51k, ×82 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $19M, ×30624 the market median. Revenue is up 4150% on the market; 58 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 81.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 4150% on the market, 58 announced, ×6.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gun Customization + Dystopian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 16
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $599 → $5.1k → $51k → $185k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gun Customization + Dystopian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 16
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $51k (exactly $51,249)
Top 25% $443k (exactly $443,178)
Top 5% $19M (exactly $19,231,987)
Developers, 2 yr 16
Released games 45
Announced 58
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 4150% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gun Customization
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dystopian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Gun Customization; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Character Customization, Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 26,603 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $51k, 1 in 4 over $440k, 1 in 20 over $19M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 5 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 58 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gun Customization with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Tower DefenseFair26 devs · median $958 · 32 announced
  2. + Immersive SimPoor odds12 devs · median $25k · 44 announced
  3. + BuildingPoor odds13 devs · median $16k · 39 announced
  4. + Survival HorrorPoor odds26 devs · median $14k · 55 announced
  5. + ModernPoor odds18 devs · median $14k · 38 announced
  6. + MilitaryPoor odds50 devs · median $13k · 126 announced
  7. + StealthPoor odds20 devs · median $13k · 63 announced
  8. + Co-opPoor odds31 devs · median $11k · 92 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds12 devs · median $11k · 32 announced
  10. + Resource ManagementPoor odds28 devs · median $11k · 71 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds23 devs · median $9.1k · 64 announced
  12. + Post-apocalypticPoor odds54 devs · median $8.1k · 162 announced

All 93 pairs on the Gun Customization page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

The Forever Winter 2024 · EA · $19M Forefront 2026 · $1.6M Cavalry Girls 2023 · $675k Out of Action 2026 · EA · $549k Cargo Hunters 2026 · EA · $443k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Forever Winter · EA $29.99 21,376 68% 641k $19M (exactly $19,231,987) Fun Dog Studios
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
Cavalry Girls older $11.99 1,877 88% 56k $675k (exactly $675,157) 中子星游戏研究所
Out of Action · EA $19.99 916 77% 27k $549k (exactly $549,325) Doku Games LTD
Cargo Hunters · EA $19.99 739 82% 22k $443k (exactly $443,178) Order Of Meta
Roboquest VR $29.99 395 87% 12k $355k (exactly $355,382) Flat2VR Studios, RyseUp Studios
They Killed Your Cat $6.99 883 75% 26k $185k (exactly $185,165) Vekaria
La Quimera · EA $29.99 167 51% 5.0k $150k (exactly $150,250) Reburn
Sector Six older $8.00 223 93% 6.7k $54k (exactly $53,520) V3663L
Decision Legacy Collection $9.99 171 83% 5.1k $51k (exactly $51,249) FlyAnvil
Star Mining Co. $8.99 29 82% 870 $7.8k (exactly $7,821) Barney Whiteman
ALARIC $14.99 14 92% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Dominik Grigoras

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.