Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Tabletop

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Tabletop game?

Gambling + Tabletop

Of 76 developers who shipped a Gambling Tabletop game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×5.0 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $180k, ×1569 the market median. Revenue is up 350% on the market; 99 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 350% on the market, 99 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Tabletop
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 76
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $28k → $240 → $29k → $538 → $179 → $3.8k → $599 (still earning) → $807 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Tabletop: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 76
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $10k (exactly $10,423)
Top 5% $187k (exactly $186,770)
Developers, 2 yr 76
Released games 160
Announced 99
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 350% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Tabletop
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Gambling, Tabletop; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 13,131 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $600, 1 in 4 over $10k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 9 in 10 of the 43 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 47 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slots & Daggers $7.99 7,421 93% 223k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,814) Friedemann
Poker Club older $19.99 506 58% 15k $303k (exactly $303,448) Ripstone
Bingle Bingle $14.99 666 80% 20k $300k (exactly $299,500) Knitting Games
Nine-Ball Roulette $3.99 2,159 88% 65k $258k (exactly $258,432) WaveBox Labs
Casino Simulator · EA older $9.99 786 81% 24k $236k (exactly $235,564) Lodos Games
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger
Menherarium: Deadly Dice $8.99 669 92% 20k $180k (exactly $180,429) テスカトリポカ
Exotica: Petshop Simulator older $7.99 482 81% 14k $116k (exactly $115,535) Konrul Game
Dice Have No Eyes · EA $9.99 252 95% 7.6k $76k (exactly $75,524) Franek, Max Cahill
Capote $5.99 397 97% 12k $71k (exactly $71,341) Luski Game Studio
Pip My Dice $10.99 134 87% 4.0k $44k (exactly $44,180) Diving Swan Games
Bonesaw $6.66 179 89% 5.4k $36k (exactly $35,764) Blood Pact Studios
Casino Island Simulator · EA $8.99 120 61% 3.6k $32k (exactly $32,364) Clap Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.