Do I ship it?

GamesGamblingGambling + Solitaire

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Solitaire Gambling game?

Gambling + Solitaire

Only 19 developers shipped a Solitaire Gambling game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dice People, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $270 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $120 for a 2 / 10 build. 7 developers shipped in the last year and 19 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 19 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Gambling + Solitaire
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $299 → $2.0k → $479 (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Gambling + Solitaire: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $269 (exactly $269)
Top 25% $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,494)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 57
Announced 19
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 40% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band
Solitaire
effort 1 / 10 · high · fixed rules, cards and a table

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Gambling, Solitaire; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Deckbuilding, Management
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $10.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $10.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 853 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $270, 1 in 4 over $1.5k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 13 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Gambling with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomanceStrong odds11 devs · median $5.7k · 9 announced
  2. + Dungeon CrawlerFair16 devs · median $7.0k · 17 announced
  3. + Visual NovelFair16 devs · median $5.7k · 12 announced
  4. + Online Co-OpFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 34 announced
  5. + Co-opFair22 devs · median $4.4k · 32 announced
  6. + FPSFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  7. + Life SimFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  8. + SandboxFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 10 announced
  10. + Multiple EndingsFair30 devs · median $1.8k · 42 announced
  11. + ArcadeFair96 devs · median $1.3k · 129 announced
  12. + MysteryFair23 devs · median $1.2k · 26 announced

All 71 pairs on the Gambling page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dice People $2.99 719 90% 22k $64k (exactly $64,494) Mateusk2m, Manodeix
Roll older $4.99 407 91% 12k $61k (exactly $60,928) Joseph Distler
Milf City older $1.99 320 85% 9.6k $19k (exactly $19,104) Milk Poison
DAGURI: Gambling Apocalypse older $2.99 207 93% 6.2k $19k (exactly $18,568) DakeCraft
It's time, Your Majesty $6.99 77 64% 2.3k $16k (exactly $16,147) String studio
Card Games Mega Collection older $6.99 45 62% 1.4k $9.4k (exactly $9,436) Gunnar Games
Encore Card Games Collection older $19.99 15 53% 450 $9.0k (exactly $8,996) Webfoot
Blood Poker older $4.99 27 96% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Roeb
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Hi Poker 3D:Texas Holdem older $9.99 12 50% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Joydance Studio
Flipto $10.99 6 100% 180 $2.0k (exactly $1,978) Wayne Made A Game
Card Streamer Simulator $2.99 17 52% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Scissors Game
Baccarat Strada: Ultimate Baccarat Punto Banco Simulator & Trainer $5.99 3 100% 90 $539 (exactly $539) TheVegasLab.com
Roulette Salon - The Ultimate Casino Roulette Simulator $7.99 2 100% 60 $479 (exactly $479) TheVegasLab.com
Tilting - A Noir Poker Career $3.99 4 50% 120 $479 (exactly $479) Low Light Games
Girlfriend Strip Blackjack $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) AsianGFModels.com
Waifu Cards $4.99 2 50% 60 $299 (exactly $299) Slippy Floor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.