Do I ship it?

Games › Sandbox › Sandbox + Incremental

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Incremental Sandbox?

Sandbox + Incremental

Of 196 developers who shipped an Incremental Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 248 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×1.2 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $180. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 248 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 248 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Incremental
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 196
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.7k → $359 → $2.7k → $1.6k → $1.2k → $719 → $718 (still earning) → $958 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Incremental: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 196
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $4.4k (exactly $4,404)
Top 5% $184k (exactly $183,938)
Developers, 2 yr 196
Released games 408
Announced 248
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox, Incremental; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Idler, Automation
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 29,303 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $4.4k, 1 in 20 over $180k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 248 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Moncage 2021 · $2.3M Startup Company 2020 · $2.3M Berry Bury Berry 2026 · $2.1M BitCraft Online 2025 · EA · $1.6M Outpath 2023 · $1.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Moncage older $14.99 5,127 92% 154k $2.3M (exactly $2,305,612) Optillusion
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
Berry Bury Berry $7.99 8,619 98% 259k $2.1M (exactly $2,065,974) Get(Color) Games
BitCraft Online · EA $15.99 3,334 72% 100k $1.6M (exactly $1,599,320) Clockwork Laboratories, Inc.
Outpath older $14.99 2,898 92% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,303,231) David Moralejo Sánchez
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Fortune Mill $7.99 3,712 81% 111k $890k (exactly $889,766) Lavaflame2
Garden Galaxy older $9.99 2,472 97% 74k $741k (exactly $740,858) Anneka Tran
Plantera older $2.99 4,518 88% 136k $405k (exactly $405,265) VaragtP
Aquarium Designer older $9.99 1,086 84% 33k $325k (exactly $325,474) Sigur Studio
Forage Wizard $6.99 1,549 87% 46k $325k (exactly $324,825) Lost Maxim
Project P.I.T.T. $9.99 961 78% 29k $288k (exactly $288,012) Froke
Sort Them Ducks $5.99 1,461 92% 44k $263k (exactly $262,542) Mr.Duck
Tingus Goose $6.99 1,224 89% 37k $257k (exactly $256,673) SweatyChair
Data Center $8.99 916 76% 27k $247k (exactly $247,045) Waseku
Age of Clicks · EA $12.99 472 65% 14k $184k (exactly $183,938) David Ius

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.