Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Gambling

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gambling Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Gambling

Only 10 developers shipped a Gambling Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Dice People, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 10 more are announced.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $150 in the last 2 years and $420 over 4, against a market of $630 for a 6 / 10 build. 6 developers shipped in the last year and 10 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 10 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Gambling
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.5k → $2.4k → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Gambling: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $60 (exactly $60)
Median $150 (exactly $150)
Top 25% $2.5k (exactly $2,507)
Top 5% $64k (exactly $64,494)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 25
Announced 10
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 36%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gambling
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Gambling
Price point
$3.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 88% positive over 806 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $60, median $150, 1 in 4 over $2.5k, 1 in 20 over $64k.

3 in 10 developers made under $60. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 10 games are announced against 6 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Dice People $2.99 719 90% 22k $64k (exactly $64,494) Mateusk2m, Manodeix
CUBE ROYALE · EA older $9.99 47 93% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) Creature Factory
Glassbreakers: Champions of Moss $19.99 22 63% 660 $13k (exactly $13,193) Polyarc
Blood Poker older $4.99 27 96% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) Roeb
GILTSTEADER - Tower Defense older $5.99 15 66% 450 $2.7k (exactly $2,696) Lessermore
Peak $1.99 42 92% 1.3k $2.5k (exactly $2,507) Three Hands Co
ホロライブオールスター バトルタイルズ $3.99 20 25% 600 $2.4k (exactly $2,394) BG2研
Idle Percent older $1.99 7 28% 210 $418 (exactly $418) Pixel Fox
THE BEST INVESTOR $4.99 1 100% 30 $150 (exactly $150) THE FRENCH GRINDER
TOSS $4.99 1 0% 30 $150 (exactly $150) SolitaryStudios
Battle Alien $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) log_gry
Money Block · EA $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Freya Games
Dealer Bust! | Roguelike BlackJack $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Destina Games
Gambling Simulator $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Fato Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.