Do I ship it?

Games › Trading Card Game › Trading Card Game + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Trading Card Game?

Trading Card Game + Female Protagonist

Only 11 developers shipped a Female-Led Trading Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 26 more are announced, ×6.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $3.7k against a market of $630. 26 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 26 announced, ×6.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading Card Game + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $4.3k → $6.5k
Outcomes for Trading Card Game + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 25% $82k (exactly $81,845)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 37
Announced 26
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 45% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading Card Game
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Trading Card Game
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 3,023 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $81k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 26 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Immersive SimStrong odds18 devs · median $30k · 13 announced
  2. + SandboxFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair21 devs · median $1.5k · 28 announced
  4. + Procedural GenerationPoor odds10 devs · median $10k · 26 announced
  5. + TradingPoor odds16 devs · median $10k · 36 announced
  6. + Life SimPoor odds18 devs · median $10k · 21 announced
  7. + CollectathonPoor odds26 devs · median $6.3k · 41 announced
  8. + HistoricalPoor odds15 devs · median $6.1k · 25 announced
  9. + Co-opPoor odds11 devs · median $4.9k · 25 announced
  10. + Auto BattlerPoor odds22 devs · median $3.4k · 27 announced
  11. + Roguelike DeckbuilderPoor odds24 devs · median $3.4k · 38 announced
  12. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $3.1k · 36 announced

All 69 pairs on the Trading Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2022 · $2.5M Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 2025 · $1.3M Dream of Corpse Lady 2026 · $634k Heart of Crown PC 2017 · $396k Card City Nights 2014 · $199k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days older $69.99 1,186 76% 36k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Heart of Crown PC older $24.99 528 80% 16k $396k (exactly $395,842) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, Japanime Digital
Card City Nights older $9.99 663 89% 20k $199k (exactly $198,701) Ludosity
Children of Zodiarcs older $17.99 351 69% 11k $189k (exactly $189,435) Cardboard Utopia
Cardpocalypse older $24.99 192 88% 5.8k $144k (exactly $143,942) Gambrinous
Witch and Council : The Card $14.99 182 48% 5.5k $82k (exactly $81,845) G1 Playground
Is It Wrong to Repay the Debt in a Dungeon? older $17.99 118 79% 3.5k $64k (exactly $63,685) Atelier Wanko
九州风流 · EA older $17.99 38 60% 1.1k $21k (exactly $20,509) GB
Card of Legend $6.99 31 54% 930 $6.5k (exactly $6,501) Anchor Node
Mind of War · EA $10.99 13 100% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) Pi Video games
PERSEVERANCE: Chapter 1 $4.99 25 44% 750 $3.7k (exactly $3,742) XPECTED
Maiden Cards $20.00 3 100% 90 $1.8k (exactly $1,800) YenaGame
Somnial Ouija $7.99 6 50% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) ToMeng Studio
逝去之物 Passenger:Gone · EA $1.99 16 75% 480 $955 (exactly $955) MoonAssociation
Girl Card Battle $9.99 1 0% 30 $300 (exactly $300) SpaguettiGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.